Marquette vs. Wisconsin Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Over/Under (Dec. 4)
Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Greg Elliott
- Marquette takes on Wisconsin in in-state college basketball action on Saturday.
- The Badgers enter as 6-point favorites with updated odds.
- Check out DJ James' top bet for the game below.
Marquette vs. Wisconsin Odds
-105o / -115u
-105o / -115u
Wisconsin has proven its worth during its first stretch of the season. The Badgers have resume-building wins over Houston, Texas A&M, Saint Mary’s and Georgia Tech and only one loss — to Providence in the Gavitt Tip-Off Games.
They have earned their recognition early in the year.
Marquette has shown it might have been a bit underrated coming into the season. Shaka Smart has brought his solid defensive game plan with him to Milwaukee and the Golden Eagles have upsets over West Virginia, Ole Miss and Illinois.
The two teams come to a head in Madison for a Saturday matinee matchup. Even if Marquette runs at the third-fastest pace in all of college basketball, Wisconsin should control much of the game.
Look to the under in this one as a possible edge.
Marquette loves to move the ball quickly, as it has the second-fastest possessions in the NCAA at 14.0 seconds. The Golden Eagles even put up 80 on Bob Huggins’ West Virginia Mountaineers.
They still, however, hold opponents to 17.8 seconds per possession, which ranks 267th in the NCAA. This will likely lead to extremely slow possessions on both sides of the ball, or what everyone would call a usual Wisconsin basketball game.
Marquette primarily relies on two significant offensive contributors in Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell.
Lewis will probably have Tyler Wahl on him, who averages 1.6 blocks per game. This should limit Lewis is some capacity. He is a consistent scorer, but Wahl and Steven Crowl will be able to snag rebounds away from him. Second chances may be off the table.
Morsell will be locked down by Brad Davison. Davison is a pest and around college basketball circles is known for being that way. This will be a fun battle between two strong defensive guards who also lead the backcourts of these offenses.
Wisconsin is unlike Marquette because it slows down the ball on both offense and defense. According to KenPom, the Badgers have the 316th-slowest tempo in college basketball and force opponents to utilize much of their shot clock (18.5 seconds per possession).
This will essentially negate Marquette’s advantage. Wisconsin will make it hard for the Golden Eagles to find shot opportunities, and seeing how Marquette only knocks down a collective 32.7% of its 3s, it will struggle.
Wisconsin also only hits 30.1% of its 3-pointers, as well as 46.0% of its shots inside the arc. Morsell is a better defender than Davison is, so this basically removes Davison’s chances of being a leading scorer in this game.
Kur Kuath and Lewis are the antidote for Wahl and Crowl inside, too.
Johnny Davis will be an outlier, so depending on who Smart has Morsell guard, Wisconsin may be able to exploit Marquette’s defense a bit.
Marquette vs. Wisconsin Betting Pick
Finally, Wisconsin will have a rebounding edge over Marquette, but neither team is particularly strong at crashing the glass.
There is a high likelihood this matchup results in a game like Wisconsin’s against either Houston or Saint Mary’s (i.e. slow-paced battle with defensive matches at each position).
Wisconsin may be the better team overall, but the spread is not the play here, as it looks almost perfect. Wisconsin will likely win by about eight-to-10 points, but it will appear closer than the box score at the final buzzer.
Take the under. Both teams have favorable defensive matchups, cannot hit outside shots and will take a while to find buckets.
Pick: Under 139 (Play to 136.5)
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