College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions for Maryland vs. Richmond: Why the Spiders Should Be Favored
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- Richmond and Maryland face off in the Bahamas.
- The Terps have been very inconsistent to start the season.
- Mike Randle breaks down the game and offers up his best bet.
Maryland vs. Richmond Odds
Maryland and Richmond meet in the Baha Mar Hoops Championship in the Bahamas, with the winner playing for the championship on Saturday morning.
The Terrapins (4-1) have played all their games at home, with one loss to George Mason, 71-66. Richmond (3-2) enters with a worse record, but with a much tougher schedule that includes a true road game at Drake and a close neutral-court loss to Utah State.
These are two veteran teams with a laser-like focus on the NCAA Tournament. Which team should bettors back in this superb semifinal tournament matchup?
Maryland is a talented team on the surface, but has failed to consistently impress over its first five games.
Despite playing all their games at home, the Terrapins are just 1-4 against the spread. They failed to cover against Quinnipiac and George Washington, two teams that rank outside the top 250 in KenPom.
Maryland has struggled to find offensive efficiency, shooting just 25.4% from beyond the arc, 328th in the nation. The Terps are also shooting below 70 percent from the free throw line, a critical issue in a projected close game.
The Terrapins have solid guard play, led by Eric Ayala (15.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Fatts Russell (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.4 APG), but head coach Mark Turgeon’s defense does not use his athletic guards to force turnovers outside the arc.
Maryland ranks just 278th in defensive turnover percentage and is also allowing opponents to shoot a robust 37% from 3.
In their home loss to George Mason, the Terps allowed the Patriots to shoot 50% (12-of-24) from deep, something the hot-shooting Spiders could definitely replicate.
Richmond returned the majority of its scoring from last year, with the veteran players repeatedly citing “unfinished business.” The Spiders were a lock to make the NCAA Tournament in 2020 after a dominant 24-7 season which included a 14-4 Atlantic 10 conference record.
Due to COVID, the tournament was cancelled and last year’s Richmond team stumbled to a 13-7 regular-season record with a second-round exit in the NIT Tournament.
Led by dynamic point guard Jacob Gilyard (11 PPG, 5.8 APG, 3.6 SPG), the Spiders bring one of the country’s most versatile and explosive offenses. They have four different players that could lead the team in scoring on any given night.
Super senior Nick Sherod (8.2 PPG) was a surprise return after a gruesome ACL, MCL and meniscus tear that occurred before the start of last season. He is a 39% three-point shooter that bolsters a Spiders roster that shoots 41 percent (25th best) from beyond the arc.
This is an unselfish group that has allowed junior Tyler Burton (19.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 58.6% 3P) to ascend to the role as the leading scorer. Burton has scored 20 points in each of the past three games, including 30 in the close loss at Drake.
Maryland vs. Richmond Betting Pick
I’m backing the Spiders as the better all-around team against the higher-profile Terrapins. The Richmond backcourt and development of Burton will cause matchup problems for Maryland.
The Terrapins need a cold shooting night from the Spiders from 3, but Richmond brings too many offensive options to defend.
Chris Mooney’s team is a very live underdog that should be favored in this fantastic semifinal tournament matchup.