Sunday College Basketball Odds & Picks for Villanova vs. Purdue: Which Potential Final Four Team Has Value?

Sunday College Basketball Odds & Picks for Villanova vs. Purdue: Which Potential Final Four Team Has Value? article feature image
Credit:

Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaden Ivey.

  • Villanova battles Purdue in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament final in Sunday's action.
  • Tanner McGrath takes a deep look at this matchup between potential Final Four programs.
  • Check out below his detailed insight, along with his two best bet in this intriguing game.

Villanova vs. Purdue Odds

Sunday, Nov. 21
1 p.m. ET
ABC
Villanova Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-115
141.5
-110
+115
Purdue Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-105
141.5
-110
-135
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

This was an amazing early-season MTE. All four teams entered the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament ranked in the AP Top 25 and among the top-40 KenPom teams.

However, the two playing for the championship have proven they are head and shoulders above the competition.

Following Saturday’s demolition jobs, both Villanova and Purdue should be considered Final Four contenders. The Wildcats and Boilermakers are deep, experienced and immensely talented.

But in a battle between two powerhouses, who has the edge?


Villanova’s Offense Already in Mid-Season Form

The return of the Wildcat veterans has Jay Wright’s offense clicking.

Villanova does what it always does. The Wildcats play slow, avoid turnovers, utilize ball-screens and shoot a lot from deep. Through four games, the numbers are staggering.

The Wildcats are 335th in tempo and their 19-second long average offensive possession is the 316th longest. But the Wildcats have posted the second-lowest turnover rate in the process (10.4%).

Meanwhile, ‘Nova is ninth in the nation in 3-point shooting (45.4%) while leading the country in spot-up points per possession (1.402) and ranking 10th in pick-and-roll ball-handler points per possession (1.214).

This Wildcats team is doing everything the Wright offense is supposed to be doing, and more. And the finely-tuned scheme dominated the Volunteers’ supposedly “elite” defense, as the Wildcats posted a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio while four players scored double digits.

Villanova | Drive-Kick-Swing | Important building block to creating a selfless and efficient offense. pic.twitter.com/kTrFEyEMrP

— Coach Rio (@MarioCelebre) December 7, 2020

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Purdue Can Beat You In A Variety Of Ways

Like how Wright has the Wildcat offense clicking, Matt Painter’s Boilermakers are also lighting up scoreboards.

Purdue has now scored 90+ points in all four games this season, which is remarkable.

However, Purdue attacks basketball in a slightly different way. Painter likes to play through the post with Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. Considering the Boilermakers are scoring 1.136 points per possession in post-up situations, I’d say that’s working quite well.

However, what makes the Purdue offense twice as dangerous is the inside-outside offensive balance the roster has. Jaden Ivey is developing into a legit All-American guard, and his 22/10/6 against UNC backs that up.

However, everybody is giving the uber-athletic Ivey attention. But let’s talk about Sasha Stefanovic, whose 3-point shooting and elite defense rounds out Painter’s roster perfectly.

I'm not too familiar with Sasha Stefanovic yet but looks like a pure shooter who can run off pin downs and handoffs pic.twitter.com/oGhVioVgoY

— Hunter Cruse (@HunterCruse14) November 21, 2021

Last season, the Boilermakers went 9-1 in games that Stefanovic scored double-digits. This season, he’s already dropped 23 twice.

Stefanovic scored 1.203 points per possession in spot-up situations last year, and he is already shooting 53% from deep through four games.

Painter’s roster can beat teams in so many different ways.

If you’re playing small ball, Williams and Edey will post-up. If you’re doubling the post, the big men will dish it out to Stefanovic for 3. If you close out too hard on Stefanovic, he’ll dish to Ivey, who will break down almost any defender off the dribble and can dominate in transition.

And Painter will adjust and re-adjust until the Boilermakers score 90+ on you. This Purdue team is a force of nature.


Villanova vs. Purdue Betting Pick

This game is so tight. You could make an excellent argument for either team.

However, I believe the stronger arguments are for Purdue.

First, the Wildcats are unreliable and lack size on the interior. How do you expect 6-foot-7 Jermaine Samuels and 6-foot-8 Eric Dixon to compete with Williams and Edey?

Second, so much of Villanova’s offense relies on perimeter shooting. The Boilermakers can play solid perimeter defense, however, allowing just .843 points per possession in spot-up situations this season.

Third, building off of Villanova’s perimeter shooting, Purdue is much more versatile than ‘Nova. As I mentioned, Purdue likes to score through the post, but it can shoot from the outside, run ball-screens, and slash-and-cut as well as anyone in the nation.

If Painter can get his team to contain Collin Gillespie and Co. on the perimeter, he has the personnel to come up with several different schemes to out-score the Wildcats.

If Purdue opens at anything less than -150 on the ML, I’ll be betting the Boilermakers to win the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Challenge.

Pick: Purdue ML (-150 or better)

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