Florida State vs. Clemson Odds & Picks: Tuesday’s Betting Value Lies With Over/Under
Logan Stanford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: MJ Walker.
- The Florida State Seminoles and the Clemson Tigers will go to battle in a big ACC matchup on Tuesday night.
- The Seminoles and Tigers look like two of the best teams in the conference at this point in the season, and they could be competing for a conference crown when the regular season winds down.
- Pat McMahon breaks down the game and shares a betting pick based on his analysis below.
Florida State vs. Clemson Odds
|Florida State Odds||+2.5 [BET NOW]|
|Clemson Odds||-2.5 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||131.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET|
A pair of the ACC’s top teams clash on Tuesday night as Florida State travels to Clemson. Old school basketball fans will be excited for this matchup, as the two clubs play very hard and are among the nation’s best defensively.
Florida State comes into this game at 5-1 and ranked 18th in the AP Poll. The Seminoles suffered a surprising home loss to UCF on Dec. 19, but they do boast several quality wins as well.
Despite losing two lottery picks, Leonard Hamilton did a great job reloading and has a team capable of competing for another ACC regular-season title.
Clemson is 6-1 and got off to a hot start, already defeating four Power Five opponents. The Tigers dropped their ACC opener to Virginia Tech but get a great opportunity to knock off the Seminoles at home after eight days of rest.
Florida State Seminoles
Hamilton has quietly been one of the best coaches in college basketball over the last decade. He continues to recruit at a high level and picks up players who fit his style of play. Not many programs can lose two lottery picks and still field a top-25 team that is a contender in a major conference, but Hamilton has the Seminoles at that level.
This year’s Florida State squad has all of the trademark Hamilton qualities. Most notably, it’s very deep and balanced. Nine Florida State players are averaging double-digit minutes, and MJ Walker is the only player averaging more than 30 minutes per game.
The Seminoles have found plenty of success on both ends of the floor. They rank 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Much of Florida State’s defensive success can be attributed to superior length and athleticism. The starting guards, Walker and Anthony Polite, stand 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-6, respectively. Scottie Barnes, at 6-foot-9, is more of a true guard but starts at the three and can guard just about any position thanks to his length and athletic ability.
Hamilton has a strong four-man rotation in the frontcourt with each player standing at least 6-foot-8 and center Balsa Koprivica being the tallest, at 7-foot-1.
The offense is led by Walker and the five-star freshman Barnes. Walker has stepped into a bigger role with the departures of Trent Forrest and Devin Vassell, and he’s exceeded expectations early. He’s scoring 16 points per game on 42% shooting from 3 and 92% from the stripe, numbers that will put him on an All-ACC team if he keeps it up for the remainder of the season.
Barnes is putting up just shy of 11 points per game, but what’s been really impressive is the ability he’s shown as a distributor. Barnes is leading the team in assists at 4.2 per game and is a nightmare to defend when he’s the lead facilitator.
His one weakness early on has been outside shooting. Barnes is making only 26.7% of his 3-point attempts on the year. The Tigers will look to exploit that by keeping Barnes out of the lane and forcing him to beat them with jump shots.
Brad Brownell has done a great job of assembling the current Clemson roster, which is one of the best he’s had in his 11 years at the school.
Brownell has compiled a nice mix of veteran and young talent to work with. The Tigers are also one of the deeper teams in the ACC, with an 11-man rotation and no player averaging more than 27 minutes per contest.
This depth plays a big role in Clemson’s success on defense, where it ranks second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
The Tigers own the third-best scoring defense in college basketball, surrendering just 53.4 points per game. They’re suffocating opposing offenses, holding the opposition to 37% from the field and 28% from 3-point range.
These numbers are even more impressive when factoring in Clemson’s schedule, as it’s already faced five major conference opponents in its first seven games.
Preseason first-team All-ACC forward Aamir Simms is one of the best interior scorers in the conference. He leads the way for the Tigers offensively, posting 12.1 points per game on 59.6% shooting.
Brownell has the luxury of a roster with two very good point guards to utilize. Al-Amir Dawes and Fordham transfer Nick Honor are both playing at a high level and are often on the floor together in order to get the most out of their talent. Both can score and distribute the rock, and Honor is an excellent outside shooter.
As a team, the Tigers are nothing special from the outside, making 34% of their shots from distance. If Honor and Clyde Trapp don’t see their shots falling early, it could be a long night for the Clemson offense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This is an important early league game, as both clubs have what it takes to contend for the conference crown. With Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina all appearing to have down seasons, Florida State looks like the best team in the league, and Clemson isn’t too far behind.
I’m expecting a close game throughout, and the spread feels about right with Clemson a small favorite at home.
I do see value on the under with a pair of elite defenses clashing and neither offense playing in a hurry. At 131 points, the total is fairly low, but I don’t think it’s quite low enough. The first team to 60 should come out with the win.
Pick: Under 131.5 (down to 129).