Dayton vs Saint Louis Odds & Prediction: Expect Offenses to Shine
Pictured: Saint Louis University guard Yuri Collins. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Dayton vs Saint Louis Odds
-110o / -110u
|Saint Louis Odds|
-110o / -110u
We have a great Friday night clash between the Dayton Flyers and Saint Louis Billikens, where the Billikens will be looking for revenge after losing to the Flyers earlier this season.
It’s looking like both of these teams will need to win the A-10 tournament in order to punch a ticket into the big dance. What this tells me from a betting perspective is that neither of these teams will want to enter the tournament flat, so I think we will see a good effort from both squads here.
Let’s dive in and breakdown these A-10 foes to uncover the betting value.
When the Flyers defeated VCU last month, I thought for sure they were going to give the Rams a run for their money in a chase for the regular-season. Unfortunately, the Flyers could not get the job done and will enter the conference tournament as a No. 2 seed or a No. 4 seed, depending on this matchup.
Forward DaRon Holmes has been the true anchor of this Flyers offense, leading the team in scoring all season long. I think he can put the team on his back and make a run in a conference tournament.
Dayton is a very balanced squad, ranking inside the top-100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. What’s also impressive is that the Flyers are sixth in the country in opponent field goal percentage, which tells me their physicality and effort on defense has been spectacular.
What stuck out to me while digging up information for this particular matchup is the size discrepancy between these teams. According to KenPom, the Flyers are ranked eighth in height whereas the Billikens are ranked 249th. This could be the difference in the game and may also explain why the first matchup was so lopsided (a 70-56 Flyers victory).
Saint Louis has been a spectacular home team this season, posting a 14-3 record. This will certainly level the playing field between these teams, and I expect a good crowd on Senior Night.
But, we must mention the Billikens injury situation. Unfortunately, they have suffered multiple season-ending injuries. With a 138th ranking in bench minutes, you can only imagine what the makeup of this team would look like with a full roster.
The Billikens are average offensively and defensively, sitting inside the top 155 of both categories. But their one glaring kryptonite is forcing turnovers. This is a big concern, especially in this matchup, as Dayton does not often turn the ball over.
The tempo of this game is going to be quite drastic, as the Flyers are a true snail. The Billikens, however, love to go fast and will be looking to get out in transition whenever possible.
I like the backcourt tandem of Yuri Collins and Gibson Jimerson, as they both can get hot on any particular night. Considering the size disparity between these teams, they both will need to step up if they want to grab a home win.
Dayton vs Saint Louis Betting Pick
This is a tough game to pick a particular side, but I feel confident in playing this over. I realize Dayton’s snail offense can lead to some scoring droughts, but I think we can expect a better offensive effort from the Billikens.
What’s also working in our favor is the Flyers do not turn the ball over, and the Billikens don’t force many regardless, which should lead to more pure offensive possessions.
Dayton does have the large size advantage, but I don’t necessarily trust it to pull out this road win. I’d much rather take the safer route and trust both of these offenses to put up points.
Pick: Over 137.5 (Play to 141.5)
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