College Basketball Odds, Picks, Prediction for Duke vs. Miami (Monday, Feb. 6)
Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jeremy Roach (Duke)
Duke vs. Miami Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Duke and Miami meet on Monday night in a rematch of a highly-contested Jan. 21 matchup. This first meeting saw Duke outlast the Hurricanes, 68-66. The Blue Devils were led by Kyle Filipowski, who has been the MVP for Duke this season.
Since this victory, Duke has won three out of four, including a current three-game winning streak.
Similarly, Miami has won three of four, with wins over Florida State, Virginia Tech and Clemson.
This game has will have a significant effect on the ACC regular season title race, which is coming down to the wire. The Blue Devils and Hurricanes are among six total teams sitting within one game of first-place Clemson.
To pick which team will have the upper hand in this significant conference rematch, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Duke vs. Miami.
Duke is coming off its third win in a row, with its most recent win coming against rival North Carolina at Cameron Indoor.
In this game, the Blue Devils were effective defensively due to their rim protection. In particular, freshman Dereck Lively II recorded eight total blocks, resulting in North Carolina shooting just 39% from close range.
Dereck Lively had a huge performance yesterday, and his Bayesian Performance Rating improved more than any other Duke player after the game.
Despite the slow start, he's still ranked in the top 75 nationally at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax, which predicts performance going forward. pic.twitter.com/DKijnMKMvf
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) February 5, 2023
This level of rim protection will be critical when matching up with a Miami offense connecting on 55.1% of its interior shots, resulting in 53.1% of its total points.
In addition, I expect this rim protection to continue as Lively was able to rack up five blocks in his first matchup with an undersized Miami team.
On the offensive end, Duke has been catalyzed by the play of point guard Jermey Roach in the backcourt and the offensive rebounding ability of Filipowski in the frontcourt.
Roach has poured in back-to-back 20-point performances against Wake Forest and North Carolina.
Jeremy Roach was COOKING! 👨🍳
He led all scorers with 20 points and 7 rebounds.@DukeMBB | @jeremyroach10 pic.twitter.com/ycoOAit10b
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) February 5, 2023
Furthermore, Duke has been able to create offensive rebounds on 38% of its shot attempts, the second-highest rate in the country.
This rebounding rate will be significant against a Miami team allowing its opponents to grab offensive rebounds on 30.5% of their field goal attempts.
On both ends of the floor, I expect Duke to continue to play to its strengths.
Jim Larranaga’s Miami team has come down to earth since the nine-game winning streak it was able to string together in the month of December.
The Hurricanes currently sit at 9-4 in conference play, one game ahead of Duke.
Much of Miami’s success can be attributed to its offense, which ranks 11th nationally in Adjusted Efficiency (118.8), resulting in 78.3 points per game. This offensive efficiency is the result of a balanced attack consisting of four players averaging double figures.
The offense is predicated on its ability to create on the interior, as the Hurricanes are attempting just 36.2% of their field goals from beyond the arc.
This interior success will be tested against the length and size of a Duke defense trending in the right direction. The Blue Devils are allowing just 57.7 points per game in their last three, the eighth-lowest rate in the country.
Much of this defensive success is derived from the Blue Devils’ utilization of their average height of 79.2”, the highest average in the country.
Overall, the Miami offense is led by Isaiah Wong, who leads the Hurricanes in points, assists and percentage of possessions used. Wong’s play will be critical as he matches up with Roach, who has been trending in the right direction.
Look for Miami to continue to look for answers on the offensive end against the size and length of Duke’s defense.
Duke vs. Miami Betting Pick
This is a great revenge spot for a Miami team that is a perfect 12-0 on its home floor. Even given this, there is value on a Duke team trending in the right direction.
On the defensive end, the Blue Devils have benefitted from the rim protection of Filipowski and Lively, giving their offense a chance to outpace their opponents.
This rim protection will be critical against a Miami offense scoring 53.1% of its points on the interior despite an average height of 76.8” (226th nationally).
This situational spot for Miami has resulted in the market betting the Hurricanes to 3.5-point favorites. This steam gives us a great buy-back opportunity with a trending Duke team.
Pick: Duke +3.5 (Play to +2)
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