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Indiana vs Minnesota Odds, Picks: Signals Spotlighting This Play

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Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Trayce Jackson-Davis

Indiana vs Minnesota Odds

Wednesday, Jan. 25
9 p.m. ET
Big Ten Network
Indiana Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-10.5
-110
136.5
-110o / -110u
-610
Minnesota Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+10.5
-110
136.5
-110o / -110u
+440
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Indiana Hoosiers have riddled off three straight wins against Big Ten opponents and will hit the road to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers Wednesday night.

Indiana has excelled offensively lately, even without Xavier Johnson. It does help that Race Thompson has returned to the court, which provides a boost with some height down low.

Minnesota struggles in most areas, but is holding opponents to a 47.6% eFG%, ranking 79th in the country. The Gophers specifically guard the interior well, so they match up well with a Hoosiers team that gets a lot of points inside.

The Gophers also run at a slow pace, and Indiana has a tendency to do the same on defense. Look for this to be a classic Big Ten battle.


Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana ranks 87th in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, but the Hoosiers force opponents to use up much of their shot clock at an average of 19 seconds per possession. The Hoosiers also defend the key well. Opponents are only shooting 45% against them on twos.

They do have a tendency to allow some points closer to the rim. They rank 107th with 1.14 points per possession (PPP) on those shots, but Minnesota ranks 313th in shots attacking the rim.

The Hoosiers rank 68th in Rim and Three Rate, per Shot Quality. This means they are forcing some tough shots. According to Shot Quality, opponents only maintain a 29.4% 3-point attempt percentage on the Hoosiers.

Minnesota has a 36.3% three-point attempt rate, but as a team shoots 32.1% from deep. Much of this is due to Ta’lon Cooper’s efficiency at over 40% from 3-point range, although he does not shoot many. Indiana should hold the Gophers in check outside.

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Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota has struggled offensively. The Golden Gophers rank 342nd in Rim and Three Rate (Shot Quality), and given how Indiana forces some poor shots, Minnesota may have trouble finding open looks.

The Gophers thrive on muddying up the game, though. They rank 43rd in shot selection, sixth in free throw rate, and 61st in Rim and Three Rate defensively. Indiana’s top-20 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (KenPom) could take a hit in this game, considering how well Minnesota can defend against that type of game.

via CBB Analytics

 

The Gophers allow 1.14 PPP against finishing at the rim. Since this is comparable to Indiana, it would seem to not be much of a concern, but the Hoosiers have manufactured nearly 60% of their total points this season on twos.

Trayce Jackson-Davis will be a mismatch, and with Thompson on the floor, he at least deserves a little attention from the Gophers D.

There is a chance, given Jackson-Davis’ dominant play over the last few matchups, the Gophers run a double or even triple team on him, like Kansas did:

How To Guard Indiana at its near-comical extreme: two on Race Thompson with the ball, three on Trayce Jackson-Davis in the paint, Kansas content to leave 38.5 (Tamar Bates) and 47.2 (Miller Kopp) percent 3-pointer shooters alone on the wings. #iubb pic.twitter.com/2KBJGQnwJe

— Ryan Corazza (@ryancorazza) December 19, 2022

The major concern for the Gophers is not defending shooters. Indiana ranks 155th in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Gophers rank 296th on the other side, allowing opponents to crash 31.8% of offensive rebounding opportunities. Jackson-Davis, Jordan Geronimo, Malik Reneau, and Thompson all boast offensive rebounding rates above 8%.

This further becomes an issue if Dawson Garcia is out, due to an ankle injury. Braeden Carrington is also out for a few weeks due to a leg injury. He is not the rebounder that Garcia can be, but he does shore up the depth for the Gophers.

Indiana vs. Minnesota Betting Pick

Every metric signals that this game should go under the total. Each team has the defensive strengths the other offense usually can attack. Neither attempts many threes, and each has only around a 30% free throw attempt rate.

Look for the tempo to slow down in Minnesota. The Gophers rank 289th in Adjusted Tempo for a reason. Take this under to 135.

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