NCAAB Odds, Picks & Prediction for Oklahoma vs Texas

NCAAB Odds, Picks & Prediction for Oklahoma vs Texas article feature image
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LUBBOCK, TEXAS – FEBRUARY 13: Guard Sir’Jabari Rice #10 of the Texas Longhorns. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)

Oklahoma vs Texas Odds

Saturday, Feb. 18
2 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Oklahoma Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+10.5
-118
141.5
-110o / -110u
+420
Texas Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-10.5
-104
141.5
-110o / -110u
-580
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Red River Rivalry heads to Austin as Texas looks to remain atop the Big 12 standings when it faces its bitter rival, Oklahoma.

Oklahoma has had some of the highest of highs and the lowest of lows this season. They have a 24-point win over Alabama under their belt, but are also a dismal 3-10 in Big 12 play. The Sooners are coming off a double-digit win over Kansas State on Tuesday, but only have one win away from Norman this season.

The Longhorns are tied with Kansas atop the Big 12 standings with an 9-4 record in conference play. Texas narrowly beat Oklahoma by one point to open Big 12 play, so it will be looking to sweep its rivals at home, where Texas has only lost once this season.


Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma is last in conference play in offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate, which are all areas where Texas struggles defensively. For Oklahoma to beat Texas, it'll have to shoot a high percentage from beyond the arc. The Sooners are shooting a little over 30% from beyond the arc in conference play, but are an incredibly streaky shooting team. Against Kansas, they went 4-for-17 from deep and then, against the best 3-point defense in the Big 12 (Kansas State), they went 11-for-23 from 3 on Tuesday.

Oklahoma loves to run a ton of isolation sets and is are a high frequency cutting team as well. Texas is top 80 defensively in PPP allowed on both of those sets. Additionally, Oklahoma is averaging 1.02 PPP at home, but only 0.96 PPP away from home this season.

The Sooners defense has been pretty bad during conference play, ranking ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Oklahoma is last in turnover percentage and is getting worked on the boards, ranking third to last in defensive rebounding percentage. That was a problem the last time these two faced off as Texas was able to grab 12 offensive rebounds.

Oklahoma is also really struggling to defend in transition, allowing 1.36 PPP, which is 305th in the country. That'll be a problem against Texas, who is a top transition frequency team in the country.

Texas Longhorns

In order to slow down the Longhorns offense, opponents must defend well in transition.

Texas spends 14% of its possessions in transition, which is the eighth-highest rate in Division-I basketball. Oklahoma is a terrible transition defense, which is what plagued the Sooners in the previous meeting with the Longhorns.

Texas' shot distribution is heavily oriented toward shots at the rim and in the midrange. That is where Texas has attempted 60% of its shots this season.

The Longhorns have been shooting lights-out from the midrange — boasting a 44% team shooting percentage from that spot. Texas also ranks top-20 in PPP on shot attempts at the rim.

Texas has been good defensively this season and does two things really well. The Longhorns are turning opponents over at a top-30 rate in the country and also defend the rim at an incredibly high level, allowing 1.12 PPP, which is 33rd in the country.

The key for Texas will be to get Oklahoma to play at their fast pace, turning this game into a track meet. The Longhorns are a top-15 team in PPP allowed in transition, so if they can speed up the game, they'll have a big advantage Saturday.

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Oklahoma vs Texas Betting Pick

This is a really good spot for the Longhorns to blow out their rivals.

The Longhorns have performed so much better at home than on the road this season and the Sooners have just one win away from Norman in Big-12 play.

If the Longhorns can speed up the pace, force a lot of turnovers, and hold Oklahoma to a decent percentage from beyond the arc, they should be able to run away with this one.

I like the value on the Longhorns at -10.5.

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