NCAAB Betting Guide for Oregon vs Arizona
Photo by Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Courtney Ramey (Arizona)
Oregon vs Arizona Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Oregon and Arizona square off in a game in which the Wildcats will be looking to avenge a 87-68 loss to the Ducks on Jan. 14.
Oregon was able to take down the No. 5 Wildcats by winning the rebounding battle, 42-32. That resulted in 10 more field goal attempts than the Wildcats.
In addition to this rebounding advantage, the Ducks’ offense was sparked by 20-point performances from seniors Jermaine Couisnard and N’Faly Dante.
N’FALY DANTE OH MY 😨😨
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 14, 2023
This matchup is crucial from a conference title perspective, as both Oregon and Arizona are among five teams tied — or one-game back — of first place.
To find out which team will take advantage of this opportunity, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Oregon vs. Arizona.
In its first matchup with Arizona, Oregon produced one of its best performances of the season, scoring its second-highest point total of the campaign.
This offensive firepower was led by not one but two 20-point performances from Dante and Couisnard. Although these outings were impressive, they were season-highs for two players averaging 13.0 and 13.5 points, respectively.
Overall, this was an outlier performance for an Oregon offense scoring 70.3 points per game on the season (185th nationally).
In particular, the Ducks were able to connect on 11 total 3-point attempts, an area they have struggled in.
Although Oregon attempts 41% of its field goals from beyond the arc, it’s only scoring 30.1% of its total points from this range. This low production — despite high volume — is the result of Oregon shooting just 30.6% from 3-point range (320th nationally).
The second area I expect some regression from in this rematch is on the glass.
Arizona has been effective on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to get second chances on just 26.5% of their shots. On the other end, Arizona is able to create offensive rebounds on 32.5% of its own shots (70th nationally).
Despite these positive rebounding numbers, Oregon was able to win the battle on the glass in the first matchup.
In the end, I believe Oregon will regress with its outside shooting and rebounding production.
Just as I project Oregon’s offense to regress, I expect an Arizona offense that ranks seventh nationally in points scored (82.9) to make the necessary adjustments to have success against a Ducks defense showing weaknesses this season.
Overall, Oregon ranks 70th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency due to a struggle to defend the perimeter and create pressure.
The Ducks are allowing their opponents to score 34.5% of their points from the perimeter, the 74th-highest rate nationally.
In addition, Oregon is creating turnovers on just 17.2% of its opponents’ possessions, which is 260th nationally.
This inability to create pressure will be critical against an Arizona offense that ranks inside the top 15 nationally in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage and 2-point percentage.
The Wildcats are able to combine this efficiency with an offense ranking 11th nationally in tempo and fifth nationally in assists per field goal made.
I do not expect a Wildcats team averaging 56.8% from 2-point range to shoot 38.5% inside the 3-point line, as they did in the first matchup versus Oregon.
Oregon vs. Arizona Betting Pick
This is a perfect spot to back an Arizona team looking for revenge.
Although Oregon has done some great things in Pac-12 play, I expect it to regress from its performance the first time around against Arizona.
Additionally, Arizona has been at its best at home, winning 11 of its 12 games.
Look for Arizona to emphasize rebounding while Oregon regresses toward the mean from beyond the arc. That will result in a comfortable Arizona victory.
Pick: Arizona -8.5 (Play to -9.5)
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