Saint Louis vs Davidson Odds, Predictions | NCAAB Betting Preview for Friday, Jan. 27
Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Saint Louis Billikens guard Sincere Parker.
Saint Louis vs Davidson Odds
|Saint Louis Odds|
-105o / -115u
-105o / -115u
The Saint Louis Billikens are among the best mid-major programs in the country with a top-50 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom. Davidson, their Friday night opponent, comes into this contest 3-5 in conference play.
The Billikens, who are 6-1 in conference play, are a great offensive team, but tend to focus on a 2-point offense, instead of being effective from the perimeter. Davidson does the same. Both have great defenses inside the arc, and neither stresses defensive turnovers.
Given how slowly Davidson plays, its 12-7 record on unders shows the market has not quite caught up to the Wildcats. This game should also go under the total.
Saint Louis may have a top-50 offense, but it does so by avoiding turnovers. The Billikens rank 50th in offensive turnover rate at only 16.6%. However, on defense, they struggle mightily to force the ball into transition, turning opponents over less than 15% of the time, which ranks 349th in the NCAA. With the ball often in half-court play, there are usually fewer possessions in the game.
The Billikens also rank 278th in 3-point attempt percentage and manufacture around 54% of their points off of 2’s. They are also about league-average in free-throw attempt percentage offensively. Unfortunately, the Davidson Wildcats are strong with both interior and exterior defense. Per Shot Quality, Davidson ranks 37th in 3-point defense and 57th in shots attacking the rim. Since Saint Louis takes so many 2’s, this pairing will not play into the Billikens’ hands.
Photo by CBB Analytics
Now, Saint Louis usually dominates on the glass in conference play. The Billikens rank 70th nationally, so putbacks may be an issue for the Wildcats, who rank 311th in rebounding. On the other side of the court, though, this means offensive rebounds will be few and far between for Davidson.
Much like Saint Louis, the Wildcats rank 207th in defensive turnover rate, but rank 86th in offensive turnover rate. Both teams are clean on offense, which should mean the Wildcats won’t get into transition much, either.
Davidson also stresses getting the ball inside. The Wildcats are slightly better at getting to the foul line than the Billikens (32.6% versus 31.8%), and since the Billikens rank 216th in free-throw attempt percentage, the Wildcats should see their fair share of shots from the strike.
In addition, the Wildcats rank 318th in 3-point attempt percentage — 55.1% of their points have come from inside the arc with 19.6% coming from the free throw line. Sam Mennenga is the lone Wildcat shooting 3’s at a clip over 35%. Desmond Watson is hitting 3’s at a 34% rate and Foster Loyer is shooting 31%.
Photo by CBB Analytics
Saint Louis can defend the interior. It ranks 56th in points per possession (PPP) against teams finishing at the rim. It also ranks 58th in PPP in the half-court.
Finally, Davidson runs at the 234th-ranked Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom. The Wildcats average 17.5 seconds per possession on offense and 18.4 seconds per possession on defense (ranked 342nd). Pairing this slow strategy with few turnovers on either side should be conducive to the under.
Saint Louis vs Davidson Betting Pick
Davidson has one weakness, and it is rebounding. Saint Louis can crash the glass and runs the ball quickly up the floor (95th in Adjusted Tempo). However, neither team will get in transition off of turnovers and both have great defenses inside the arc. Since neither team shoots much from long range, points should be at a premium. Take the under at 143.5 (-105), and play it to 142 (-110).
Pick: Under 144.5 (Play to 142)
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