NCAAB Odds, Picks & Prediction for Arizona State vs Arizona
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Arizona State vs Arizona Odds
|Arizona State Odds
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
Arizona hosts Arizona State in a Pac-12 matchup on Saturday afternoon.
Arizona won the first meeting 69-60 in Tempe on New Year's Eve. It was the Wildcats' fifth straight win in this series. Arizona has won 11 of the last 12 meetings in Tucson. This time, the Wildcats will be a double-digit favorite at home on Senior Day.
Arizona State is in fourth place in the Pac-12 and currently in line for a double-bye in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils are 19-9 and 10-7 in the Pac-12, one win away from securing their first 20-win season since 2019-20.
No. 7 Arizona comes in two games back of UCLA for first place in the conference with just a little over a week remaining in the regular season. A loss would give the regular-season title to the Bruins. Arizona is also battling UCLA for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Arizona State prefers playing at a faster pace and ranks 70th nationally in average possession length offensively. However, that has not led to the most efficient offense, largely due to a lack of shooting.
The Sun Devils rank 301st in effective field goal percentage and 318th in 3-point percentage. They are also 254th in 2-point percentage and 250th in free throw percentage at just under 70%. They are 123th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Sun Devils have four double-digit scorers, led by guard Devan Cambridge's 13.7 points per game. Point guard Frankie Collins leads the team with 4.5 assists per game. He has done a great job of protecting the ball as well after early season struggles. Collins has had two turnovers or fewer in 15 of his last 18 games.
Arizona State averages 70.6 points, which ranks 202nd nationally. However, that usually has been good enough when combined with its defense. Arizona State ranks 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
It ranks eighth nationally in field goal percentage defense and fourth in two-point percentage defense. Forward Warren Washington is an imposing presence on the interior with his length. The 7-footer ranks third in the Pac-12 with 1.9 blocks per game. He also leads the team with 6.8 rebounds per game.
Arizona's offense will present a stiff challenge, but ASU was up to the task in the first meeting. It held the Wildcats to just 38% from the field and 5-of-22 from three. However, ASU also committed 22 fouls which led to 28 Arizona free throw attempts. Arizona State 18.4 fouls per game, which could prove costly against Arizona.
Arizona has had one of the best offenses in the country this season. However, it had a five-game midseason stretch, beginning with the first meeting against Arizona State, where it scored 70 points or fewer three times. Head coach Tommy Lloyd adjusted by re-inserting guard Cedric Henderson Jr. into the starting lineup.
Over his past 10 games, Henderson is shooting 55% from three. Guard Courtney Ramey is shooting 43.2% from three, averaging four assists, and just 0.9 turnovers per game. Henderson and Ramey will be among the Senior Day honorees. Their play has sparked the Wildcats to nine wins in their last 10 games.
Arizona is seventh in scoring offense at 83.2 points per game and fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency. Forward Azuolas Tubelis leads the Pac-12 with 19.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. He is on pace to become just the seventh player in Pac-12 history to lead the conference in both categories.
The question mark about Arizona is how well and how serious it will be about defense. However, it has been more locked in at home. Arizona is allowing 65 points per game in nine conference home games. It ranks 40th nationally and third in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Wildcats are also third in the Pac-12 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. The offensive glass is an area that Arizona can exploit in this matchup. Arizona State is 299th defensive rebounding percentage and plays four guards around Washington. Arizona had 10 offensive rebounds in the first meeting and won the rebounding battle by eight.
Arizona State vs Arizona Betting Pick
With a win, Tommy Lloyd will tie UNC's Bill Guthridge (58) for the most wins by a head coach in his first two seasons. Arizona is 32-1 in the McKale Center with Lloyd at the helm. A lot of those wins have come by double digits. The Wildcats have won 12 home games by double-digits this season, including its last five conference home wins.
Arizona has covered in three of the last meetings against Arizona State, including the first meeting this season. Arizona won by nine, but it only scored 23 points in the second half. A slightly better half and it would have covered an -11.5 point spread as well.
I expect Arizona to win the rebounding battle, limit ASU's offense, and have an advantage at both the 3-point and free throw lines. That should allow the Wildcats to pull away for a double-digit victory on Senior Day and cover against its rival.
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