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Wednesday College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Baylor vs. Kansas State Betting Preview

Wednesday College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Baylor vs. Kansas State Betting Preview article feature image
Credit:

Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: LJ Cryer.

  • Baylor is favored on the road tonight against Kansas State.
  • The Bears were embarrassed last time out against Kansas, and the Wildcats have won two in a row.
  • Kyle Remillard breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Baylor vs. Kansas State Odds

Wednesday, Feb. 9
8 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Baylor Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-6
-106
135.5
-110o / -110u
-245
Kansas State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+6
-114
135.5
-110o / -110u
+198
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Baylor Bears looked like they were in hibernation last time out against Kansas.

The Bears are coming off a 24-point loss to the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse, their first defeat by 20 or more since February 2019.

That could spell bad news for Kansas State, which will be welcoming the hungry Bears who will be looking to avenge that loss.

The Wildcats have won two games straight to improve their Big 12 record to 4-6 on the season, but the first time these two teams met finished in a 25-point blowout win for Baylor.

All signs point to the rematch following a similar trend as the first meeting.


Baylor Bears

This will be Baylor’s first game since the worst showing by the program in almost three years.

The offense was dormant against Kansas, hitting just 21-of-71 field goal attempts (29.6%). It was only the third time this season that the Bears were held below 40% from the field. On the season, Baylor has hit 54% of its field goal attempts.

Head coach Scott Drew will surely have a fire lit under the group to play with great intensity. The unit owns the ninth offensive efficiency rating in the country. The Bears also grab offensive rebounds at a top-four rate, but none of that was clicking against Kansas.

That should all change in this matchup against a Kansas State defense that has struggled in defending the paint and securing defensive rebounds.

We should see the biggest bounce back on the defensive end of the floor. Baylor is elite at forcing turnovers with a top-10 rate in the nation. The group is stout at defending the perimeter holding its opponents to 30% on such attempts. That’s an issue for Kansas State, which takes 41% of its shot attempts from beyond the arc.

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Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State’s road win over TCU came against a short-handed Horned Frogs squad that was missing its leading scorer in Mike Miles.

Sophomore guard Nigel Pack has done it all for the Wildcats this season, averaging 17 points a game. Pack has been lights out from beyond the arc, hitting 43% of his 152 3-point attempts this season. He has scored 20 points in the back-to-back victories and exploded for 35 against Kansas.

Pack does most of his damage from beyond the perimeter, which is a tough place to score against Baylor. In the first matchup between these two teams Baylor held Pack to just 13 points on 33% shooting.

Kansas State does most of its damage from 3-point territory, where it has scored 36% of its points this season. Inside the arc, the Wildcats hit just 48% of their field goals, which ranks 242nd in the country.

Kansas State’s defense is also stout at guarding the 3-point line, holding opponents to 27%, the best number in the Big 12. The Wildcats are allowing a 51% rate on 2-point attempts, though.


Baylor vs. Kansas State Betting Pick

There is no reason to sound any alarms for the Baylor program. Winning at Allen Fieldhouse is nearly impossible. A few mistakes can snowball into a 20-point deficit, but a loss to Kansas State would be a cause for concern.

That’s something I don’t anticipate happening, Baylor already dismantled the Wildcats by 25-points earlier in the season. The Bears held Kansas State to 32% from the field and just 5-of-23 (22%) from beyond the arc. Baylor is so good at defending the perimeter and that’s where Pack makes his living, so I anticipate another challenging night for him.

Offensively, Baylor demolished Kansas State inside, where it made 22-of-30 (73%) 2-point field goal attempts.

Baylor was favored by 12.5 points at home in the first matchup. Now, we’re getting a great price on the Bears due to recent results by both programs. Back the Bears to wake up hungry after their hibernation last game.

Pick: Baylor -6 (Play to -7.5)

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