NCAAB Odds, Picks | Betting Colorado vs Arizona
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona’s Kerr Kriisa (25).
Colorado vs Arizona Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 149.5 -106o / -114u | +660 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 149.5 -106o / -114u | -1050 |
With just four games left in conference play, Arizona sits just one game back of UCLA in the Pac-12 standings with a season finale against the Bruins looming on March 4th.
The Wildcats bounced back from an 88-79 upset at the hands of Stanford last Saturday by taking down Utah by 26 on its home floor.
On the other side, Colorado has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country with a record of 15-12. As a result, the Buffaloes will need to win the Pac-12 Tournament in order to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Although they've been inconsistent, Colorado has kept things respectable against the Pac-12’s premier competition. In its three losses to USC, UCLA and Oregon, Colorado lost by an average of nine points and recorded a 27-point win over the Ducks in their first matchup.
To determine if the Buffs will be able to keep things respectable against the Wildcats, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Colorado vs. Arizona.
Colorado Buffaloes
It seems like decades ago that this Buffaloes team took down Tennessee in Nashville by double digits. Now, Colorado has lost six of its last 10 Pac-12 games, putting it firmly on the outside looking in for the NCAA Tournament.
Colorado’s struggles have been the result of an offense failing to find consistent success at any point. The Buffalos rank outside the top 240 in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage.
The most significant of these stats against Arizona will be Colorado's inability to connect from 3-point range. Arizona’s defense allows teams to score 33.8% of their points from long distance, the 80th-highest rate in the country. Unfortunately for the Buffs, they're scoring just 27% of their points from deep on 32% shooting.
Arizona also struggles to force turnovers, recording a takeaway on just 17.1% of defensive possessions (249th). The Buffaloes will have a tough time capitalizing on this lack of pressure, as they turn the ball over on 19.6% of possessions, which is well above the D-I average.
With only KJ Simpson and Tristan da Silva averaging double figures, Colorado will struggle to put up enough points to pull off the upset.
Arizona Wildcats
Colorado may be struggling on the offensive end, but the same can’t be said for Arizona, which boasts one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the country.
The Wildcats rank seventh nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and fifth in effective field goal percentage. The Wildcats average 83.4 points per game with five players averaging double figures.
Tommy Lloyd's team combines an uptempo style with an innate ability to share the basketball, which is a big reason why Arizona has lost just four games this season.
The Cats also rank ninth nationally in adjusted tempo and third in assists per game, scoring 66.8% of their baskets off an assist.
These stats are particularly important to note as the Wildcats face off against a Colorado defense that's been effective at slowing teams down in the half-court.
The Buffaloes' ability to play unified team defense has resulted in opponents scoring just 45.4% of their points off an assist, the 49th-lowest rate in the country.
This 21.4% difference in assist numbers between these units means Arizona will be forced to score in ways it's not used to.
Colorado vs Arizona Betting Pick
It has been exceptionally difficult to predict which version of Colorado we're going to get on a night-in and night-out basis.
The one consistent factor for the Buffaloes has been their play on the defensive end. This will be critical against an Arizona team that averages 72.5 possessions per contest.
On the other end, I look for Colorado to struggle against an Arizona defense that will force the Buffs into low-percentage outside looks.
With all that said, I will gladly invest in the under despite the up-tempo style both offenses utilize.
Pick: Under 147.5 or Better |
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