Friday College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Nevada Wolfpack Betting Preview
Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Orlando Robinson
- Nevada hosts Fresno State in a Mountain West Conference showdown.
- Seven-footer Orlando Robinson could be a massive problem for the Wolf Pack.
- Alex Hinton breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Fresno State vs. Nevada Odds
|Fresno State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Fresno State enters this matchup coming off its biggest comeback of the season.
The Bulldogs fell behind Utah State by 16 in the first half after shooting 22% from the field with six turnovers. Fresno State tightened the screws defensively, held Utah State to 23 points in the second half and won 61-54. It improved to 13-4 overall and 3-1 in Mountain West play.
Next, the Bulldogs will travel to Reno to battle the Nevada Wolf Pack.
Nevada is 8-7 overall and 2-2 in Mountain West play. It has lost three out of its last five, alternating wins and losses in those games. Last time out, it lost to Wyoming, 77-67.
Nevada leads the all-time series vs. Fresno State 60-44, and has won the last eight meetings.
Could Fresno State be poised to put an end to that streak?
Just like the Utah State game, Fresno State has been fueled by its defense all season. The Bulldogs rank second in Division 1 in scoring defense and allow 56.5 points per game. That number is aided by the Bulldogs ranking 350th in adjusted tempo.
Advanced metrics like Fresno’s defense, as well, as it ranks 27th in defensive rating and 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Junior Orlando Robinson anchors the middle for the Bulldogs, and he is at the center of everything the team does. He leads the Bulldogs in scoring (19.3), rebounds (8.7), blocks (1.6) and is second in assists (2.8) and steals (1.1).
Fresno State often surrounds the seven-footer with four guards. However, he is the only double-digit scorer on the team.
Junior Anthony Holland is averaging 9.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while shooting 47.6% from deep. He scored all 13 of his points in the second half of the comeback win over Utah State.
Junior Isaiah Hill averages 8.4 points, three rebounds and 2.9 assists while junior Jordan Campbell is averaging 7.6 points and 3.4 rebounds per game.
The Bulldogs are 107th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 124th in offensive rating.
Nevada plays much faster (17th in adjusted tempo) than Fresno State and thus averages 76.5 points per game.
The Wolf Pack are led by guard Grant Sherfield, who just crossed the 1,000-point barrier for his career. The junior is averaging 19.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game this season. He is also shooting 37.8% from beyond the arc on nearly five attempts per game.
Senior guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. is averaging 15.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and two assists a night.
Up front, center Will Baker is averaging 11.5 points and 5.3 rebounds. He can also step out and stretch the defense, shooting 42.9% from 3.
Finally, junior forward Warren Washington is averaging 10.9 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per outing.
While Nevada can score, it does not have the most efficient offense. The Wolf Pack are 95th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 192nd in offensive rating. As a team, the Wolf Pack are shooting 32.3% from beyond the arc, which ranks 248th nationally.
Nevada’s numbers at the defensive end are not pretty either. It ranks 130th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 237th in defensive rating. Nevada allows 75.5 points per game and ranks 318th in scoring defense and ninth in the Mountain West in conference play thus far.
Fresno State vs. Nevada Betting Pick
In two meetings against Nevada last season, Robinson averaged 15 points per game. While Nevada has big bodies to throw at him in Baker and Washington, Robinson is going to get his numbers. He’s shooting a career high 50% from the field and averaging a career-best in points.
He has also gotten more help as of late from Holland.
Holland missed Fresno State’s first conference game because of health and safety protocols. However, since returning, he has averaged 16.3 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game.
Additionally, he’s a knockdown shooter who could have a big game against a Nevada team that ranks 276th in 3-point percentage defense. Fresno State is 11-1 in Holland’s career when he has scored in double digits.
While Fresno State will have a slight advantage offensively going against Nevada’s defense, the Bulldogs’ defense will be the difference. Fresno State will put the clamps on an inefficient Nevada offense.
As a short road favorite, I like Fresno State to snap its losing streak to Nevada.
Pick: Fresno State +1
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