Georgetown vs Xavier Odds, Picks: NCAAB Betting Preview (Saturday, Jan. 21)
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Colby Jones (Xavier)
Georgetown vs Xavier Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Some people will tell you that no loss is a good loss, but when it comes to college basketball, every team will likely lose at some point.
Whether you consider Xavier‘s first conference loss of the season on the road at DePaul a good loss or a bad one is entirely up to you.
Regardless, the Musketeers’ matchup with Georgetown on Saturday now turns an easy win against the worst team in the Big East into a highly-pivotal matchup.
DePaul wasn’t just Xavier’s first loss in conference play; it was its lowest-ranked loss of the season.
Along with coming off its first loss in Big East play, Xavier has UConn up next in Storrs. How it responds will tell us a lot about this team when it comes to preparing for March.
The Musketeers opened as a 19-point favorite and are likely to move past 20. But how many points are too many for a Georgetown team dying for a conference win?
The Hoyas are still searching for their first Big East win since March 2, 2021. That’s a win that coincidentally enough came against the Musketeers.
There aren’t many teams currently in more disarray than Georgetown. The Hoyas are last in the Big East in scoring margin, with an average of -6.3 per game.
But in all honesty, Georgetown is better than its record reflects.
Georgetown covered the spread its last time out against Villanova, even holding a six-point lead with eight minutes left in the second half. But in those close games where the Hoyas have had an opportunity to win, they’ve consistently come up short.
Patrick Ewing’s team has held the lead in the second half in four of its eight conference losses, which includes one game against one of the best teams in the conference, the UConn Huskies.
On offense, Georgetown has lived in the mid-range, taking 25.9% of its total field goal attempts from the region. That makes sense, given its where it’s had the most success. The Hoyas rank in the 88th percentile on the season, making 40.9% of their mid-range shots.
Against the Musketeers, though, they will need to get creative. Xavier has held opposing teams to just 32.4% from the mid-range. And as of late, the Musketeers have been even better, giving up just 26.8%.
Defensively, Georgetown is last in the Big East in defensive efficiency, turnover percentage, 3-point defense and steal percentage.
But it’s worth noting that the Hoyas’ defense has been in line with Xavier’s scoring defense. The Musketeers are allowing 77.8 points per game while Georgetown is giving up 77.7.
Xavier undoubtedly has issues on defense, but will Georgetown be able to take advantage?
A loss on the road against DePaul in Caleb Murphy’s first game back doesn’t mean it’s time to panic about the Musketeers.
Xavier won its first meeting with Georgetown by 12, and it was also the only game this season in which it scored triple digits.
But while we are all aware of how impressive this Xavier offense can be, it’s hard to ignore the elephant in the room that is the Musketeers’ defense.
Georgetown scored 89 points against Xavier in their first meeting. That was only the third time the Hoyas scored more than 76 points this season, their other two games being the first and second of the season against teams ranked outside the top 300.
The Musketeers’ defense has struggled to defend both at the rim and from the 3-point range. Xavier has allowed teams to cash in on 70.3% of shots at the rim over its last five games, while opponents are making 37.6% of their shots above the break over the same period.
Georgetown vs Xavier Betting Pick
Xavier can win this game by 30+ if it plays to its full potential on defense.
However, the Musketeers still struggle to defend guards in the Big East. Marquette’s Tyler Kolek went off for 25 against the Musketeers while DePaul’s Umoja Gibson racked up 22 in its win over Xavier.
Primo Spears will do the same, given the opportunity. I think Xavier is a top-three team in the Big East, and it’ll come out strong after the loss to DePaul. But Georgetown will still be fighting hard, as it chases its first Big East win in nearly two years.
Regardless of whether or not Xavier pulls away or Georgetown keeps this close like the first meeting, I think this game can go well over the total.
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