Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Odds & Picks: Why to Bet the Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Odds

Saturday, Feb. 12

4 p.m. ET

ESPN2

Georgia Tech Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+9.5 -110	123.5 -110o / -110u	+400

Virginia Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-9.5 -110	123.5 -110o / -110u	-550

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Virginia came into the season projected to finish in the top five of the ACC. Now with just six games left in the season, they find themselves at 9-5 in league play and sixth place in the conference. Virginia does appear to be getting hot at the right time, currently riding a three game win streak, but can they keep it going through the weekend?

The Cavaliers will host Georgia Tech on Saturday afternoon in the only scheduled meeting of the season between these teams. Virginia will also have a quick turnaround immediately after when they hit the road to take on Virginia Tech Monday afternoon — this is a public service announcement; we have college basketball Monday before 5 p.m. ET.

Georgia Tech meanwhile has struggled throughout the season. While Virginia fights to break into the ACC's top five, the Yellow Jackets are fighting to stay out of last place. Tech at 3-9 is currently ahead of only N.C. State (3-11) in conference play.

The Yellow Jackets will head to Charlottesville coming off of a 79-70 loss to Miami. Against the Canes, Tech held its own, even taking a lead into halftime. But Miami outscored the Yellow jackets by 11 in the second half and not only won the game but also got a wild backdoor cover thanks to free throws at the end.

KenPom gives Tech a 21% chance to beat Virginia, which I'll admit is higher than I thought it would be, but the spread on this game opened at -9 and has now risen to -10. The Cavaliers haven't covered a double-digit spread since December 18th against Fairleigh Dickinson, but will they blow out the Yellow Jackets?

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The Yellow Jackets rank 10th in the conference in scoring, putting up 69.8 points per game. This is considerably better than Virginia who averages just 63.5 points per game, ranking 14th in the conference. However, there is one major difference between these two that makes their scoring a big of an empty stat.

Georgia Tech posts an Effective Field Goal percentage of just 49.8% and ranks 10th in the ACC in FG% on 58.4 field goal attempts per game. Virginia meanwhile is taking fewer shots, shooting better, and is more effective. Tech will not have the same success on offense once they are operating on Virginia time – the slowest tempo in all of college basketball.

Tech struggles when it comes to turnovers and offensive rebounds as well, ranking 236th in Turnover Rate and 11th in the ACC in Turnover Margin. Around the basket, the Yellow Jackets come down with  just 7.5 offensive rebounds per game.

On the defensive end, Tech is allowing opponents to score 70.6 points per game. Tech has been productive when it comes to defending the three, but this won't be much help as Virginia ranks among the bottom 25 in the nation when it comes to 3-point attempts and makes.

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Virginia Cavaliers

Virginia is coming off a huge win over Duke on Monday. In that game the Blue Devils had just come off a huge win over North Carolina themselves before falling to the Cavaliers. Can Virginia avoid the same fate?

A win over Georgia Tech would be the first time the Cavaliers have won four in a row since the first 10 games of the season. They are primed to make a run at the end of the season, but to do so they will need to keep the momentum rolling.

In the last three games, Virginia's offense has stepped up in a big way, increasing its scoring average from 63.5 up to 69 points per game. Meanwhile, the defense has remained consistent and limited opposing teams to just 60 points per contest.

The Cavaliers have also improved their shooting percentage in every area of the floor. The most significant improvement has come at the free throw line where they've gone from 73.3% on the season to 82.9% over the last three games.

Improvements haven't been limited to just the offense either. The Cavaliers have improved to 10 steals per contest over their last three, up from 6.3 on the year. They also have averaged 11.5 forced turnovers per game on the year, but over the last three games have bumped that up to 14 per game.

If Virginia can keep this up for the remainder of the season, it can make a serious push to challenge for the ACC crown.

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Betting Pick

Virginia is surging as of late, but the dynamic duo of Michael Devoe and Jordan Usher for Georgia Tech cannot be discounted, especially as 10-point underdogs.

While the Cavaliers have been great in recent games, this year has been a step backwards when you think about the lock down Virginia defense of old.

I do think Virginia pulls out the win, but 10 points is too many here in a bad spot for Virginia coming off of a big win. I would take Georgia Tech down to +9.

Pick: Georgia Tech +10 (bet down to +9)