Thursday College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions for Indiana vs. Michigan: Betting Value on Wolverines?
Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Hunter Dickinson.
- Indiana takes on Michigan in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament.
- Both teams are currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but Michigan is the bigger story because of how it underperformed expectations.
- Kyle Remillard breaks down the game and explains where the value lies.
Indiana vs. Michigan Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Indiana and Michigan both underperformed this season. Now, they look to keep their seasons alive as they hit the court to start the second round of the Big Ten Tournament.
Indiana finished the regular season 18-12 but disappointed down the stretch, winning just two of its final nine conference matchups. That skid has the Hoosiers sitting on the bubble as one of the “First Four Out,” according to Joe Lunardi’s bracketology.
Michigan fought hard the last two weeks, going 3-2 in its final five games without head coach Juwan Howard due to a suspension. The Wolverines also upset Ohio State on the road in that span, which may have been enough to solidify its standing in the NCAA tournament.
Michigan routed Indiana on the road, 80-62, in the only meeting between these two programs. But with IU’s season potentially on the line, will the Hoosiers find a way to flip the script?
Indiana had a nightmare ending to the regular season, finishing just 2-7 down the stretch. It wasn’t much better for bettors, as the Hoosiers went 3-6 against the spread during that span.
Indiana’s offense shot 57% in its two victories in the final nine games. In those seven losses, the Hoosiers connected on just 38% of their field goal attempts.
Mike Woodson noted on Wednesday that the program will be without guards Trey Galloway and Rob Phinisee for the start of the Big Ten Tournament. Though the duo combined to average just a dozen points per game, that will hinder the depth and rotations that Woodson would like to use.
The Hoosiers will lean on forward Trayce Jackson-Davis as the go-to scorer for the Big Ten tourney. Jackson-Davis has averaged 17 points and eight rebounds this season while shooting 58% from the field. He’s second in the conference with 2.4 blocks per game.
The matchup between Jackson-Davis and Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson will surely be a major factor in the outcome of this game.
Indiana has owned a top-20 defensive efficiency ranking this season, according to KenPom. It’s been elite at defending the paint, allowing just 44% of opponents’ 2-point field goals to drop. That wasn’t the case in the first matchup, as Michigan dominated by hitting 57% from the field.
Michigan’s success is directly related to the play of Dickinson, the seven-foot center. Though, that wasn’t the case in the season finale as the Wolverines upset Ohio State on the road without him in the lineup.
Dickinson was held out with a stomach illness, but all signs indicate he will be good to go for this matchup. The sophomore center averages 18 points and nine rebounds while hitting 56% from the field.
The Wolverines have two outside shooting threats in Eli Brooks and Caleb Houstan. The duo has connected on 38% of its combined 271 3-point attempts on the season. In the first matchup against Indiana, Houstan caught fire and hit 5-of-7 shots from downtown.
But Howard’s squad does most of its damage inside the perimeter, where it scores 56% of its points. The Wolverines hit 53% of such shot attempts, which is good for 50th in the nation. However, that won’t be easy against an Indiana defense that ranks inside the top 10 in 2-point defense.
Indiana vs. Michigan Betting Pick
Woodson noted that he wanted another shot at Michigan after the 18-point defeat at home earlier in the season. But Woodson should be careful what he asks for, as this is going to be a dog fight, like most Big Ten matchups.
The depth of Indiana’s bench is a major concern. In the first matchup between these two programs, the Hoosiers’ bench contributed just eight points on 4-of-17 shooting from the field. That was also the case in the regular-season finale, as Indiana’s bench scored four points on 2-of-12 shooting.
Missing both Galloway and Phinisee won’t help the Hoosiers’ cause for what is already one of the weakest backcourts in the conference.
The matchup that will have everyone’s attention is Jackson-Davis against Dickinson. Dickinson won that matchup in the first game, scoring 25 points on 75% shooting from the field.
We should see an inspired Michigan side with the return of Howard off his five-game suspension. The Wolverines have won and covered in five straight games against Indiana, and I expect that trend to continue in this matchup.
Pick: Michigan -2 (Play to -3)
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