College Basketball Odds & Picks for Indiana vs. Purdue: Boilermakers Frontcourt Too Much to Handle
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- Purdue hosts Indiana in a Big Ten duel that will be decided up front.
- The Boilermakers are known to have one of the best frontcourts in the nation while Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson will have to battle on the interior with them.
- D.J. James breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Indiana vs. Purdue Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Indiana is in a bind right now. The Hoosiers find themselves right on the bubble, and a loss to Rutgers Wednesday night didn’t help their case.
Now, Mike Woodson’s bunch has to play Purdue on the road to round out its Big Ten regular season schedule.
Purdue has also been on a bit of a slide. The Boilermakers’ defense has been a detriment to their success all season, and that has particularly come to light in recent losses to Wisconsin and Michigan State.
They struggle mightily with ball-screens, but Indiana does not run many of them (306th in the nation, per ShotQuality).
Since Purdue is poised for a strong bounce-back performance, and Indiana does not have the offensive punch to keep up with the Boilermakers, taking the home team’s side of the spread might be wise.
Indiana closing out its regular season against one of the best teams in the Big Ten on the road is tough, let alone in a rivalry game.
The Hoosiers are essentially the opposite of the Boilermakers, as they sport a strong defense and a weak offense.
They have the 48th-ranked free throw rate, per ShotQuality, but Purdue is one of the strongest teams when it comes to not fouling.
KenPom has the Boilers ranked 11th in free throw attempts on defense. This will come in handy, especially against Trayce Jackson-Davis and Xavier Johnson, who are notably strong at getting to the rim and drawing fouls.
Since nearly 20% of the Hoosiers’ total point distribution has come from the free throw line, they will have to find alternative scoring methods.
Indiana usually thrives on the defensive boards. The Hoosiers hold opponents to a 24.6% offensive rebounding clip, but Purdue is elite in this metric thanks to Trevion Williams and Zach Edey.
The Boilermakers rebound at a 34.7% rate on offense and 23.2% on defense. Indiana’s rebounding numbers are lacking offensively, so it will barely manage any second opportunities in this outing.
Building off of that, Indiana may be a strong defensive squad, but it is a bit weak at defending 3s. Teams are shooting 31.9% from deep on the season against the Hoosiers, and Purdue shoots 39.8% from deep as a unit.
Sasha Stefanovic has been quiet lately, but expect him to catch fire here. Jaden Ivey and Mason Gillis will probably do the same.
Now, Jackson-Davis is a fantastic post defender despite his lacking size (at least compared to Edey). He will be able to somewhat contain Edey, but Jackson-Davis tends to get into foul trouble. He has had at least three in the last four games.
If Jackson-Davis gets into foul trouble in this one, that will open shots up for both Edey and Williams.
Finally, Indiana tends to foul often on defense. It ranks 190th in free throw rate, and Purdue will take advantage. Around 18.2% of the Boilers’ total points this year have come from the strike.
At home, this will definitely be an advantage.
Indiana vs. Purdue Betting Pick
Both of these teams are in prime position to bounce back. Purdue’s offense will become too much for Indiana to keep up with, and the Hoosiers will not make as many trips to the free throw line.
Purdue’s rebounding might become too much, and both Ivey and Stefanovic will take advantage of Indiana’s somewhat lackluster 3-point defense.
Take the Boilermakers.
Pick: Purdue -10
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