NCAAB Odds, Picks for Marquette vs Butler
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Eric Hunter Jr. (Butler)
Marquette vs Butler Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
With a win on Tuesday evening, the Marquette Golden Eagles will be one step closer to locking up the Big East regular season title.
In their way of accomplishing this goal will be the Butler Bulldogs, who have had a disappointing 2022-23 season.
The real question entering this matchup is figuring out what type of effort we are going to see from the Bulldogs. Hinkle Fieldhouse is certainly no walk in the park for opponents, but the Bulldogs’ NCAA tournament dreams are all but finished.
Let’s dive into the breakdown of both of these Big East foes to see if we can uncover some betting value.
Shaka Smart has his team primed for a deep March Madness run, as the Golden Eagles put together yet another outstanding offensive performance this past Saturday against DePaul.
Guards Kam Jones and Tyler Kolek led the way once again for the Golden Eagles, putting up 22 points apiece.
As much as the numbers suggest Marquette is one of the best offensive units in the country, this could be a tough matchup for it.
Butler is definitely not the most talented team — as its record and metrics suggest — but it does play pretty well defensively. Marquette squeaked by the Bulldogs back on Feb. 4, 60-52, failing to cover the large 15.5-point spread.
The Golden Eagles do a lot of things well on both ends of the floor, but they have struggled grabbing rebounds and making free throws. They rank in the bottom 200 of both categories, which is definitely something to monitor moving forward.
I think this isn’t going to be as easy as many bettors will presume, and you will see why when I breakdown the Bulldogs.
It seems like Butler’s recipe all season has been slowing the tempo down and relying on its defense.
Many would think it’s a poor team defensively, but it’s actually the complete opposite. The Bulldogs are 69th in defensive efficiency and also rank 18th in turnover percentage.
This strategy would certainly be paying dividends if they figured out their offense. Butler ranks an abysmal 340th in Rim & 3 Rate and 224th Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, which clearly illustrates its 6-12 Big East record.
The Bulldogs’ 3PT% is also a lowly 224th in the nation, but luckily for them, in this matchup, they actually could find success against Marquette’s 267th rank in defending the deep ball.
Marquette loves to get out in transition, so if Butler is able to limit those opportunities and lower the variance by slowing things down, I think the Bulldogs will be able to have some success here.
Marquette vs Butler Betting Pick
Before I make my pick, I need everybody to hold their nose for this one.
Also, this entire pick could be thrown away if Manny Bates remains out for the Bulldogs. If he’s still out, I’d lean towards the under 142.5.
But let’s project that Bates is a full go, and with that said, I am going dumpster diving with the Bulldogs here.
I just think this is too many points to swallow for the Golden Eagles, and they are still due for some regression with a -9.24 record-luck, per ShotQuality. Butler can limit what Marquette wants to do on the offensive end of the floor, and this tempo will certainly play more into the Bulldogs’ favor.
The Golden Eagles will definitely be a public betting favorite, especially with this being the first power-conference tip-off of the Tuesday night slate.
I would wait as long as possible to see the status of Bates, and you can probably get some extra points to work with.
Throw in the fact that it’s Senior Night at Hinkle Fieldhouse, and I think Thad Matta’s squad will come out with a fiery effort.
Pick: Butler +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
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