College Basketball Odds, Picks: Michigan State vs Ohio State Betting Prediction (Feb. 12)
Photo by Graham Stokes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Brice Sensabaugh (Ohio State)
Michigan State vs Ohio State Odds
|Michigan State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Ohio State Odds|
-110o / -110u
Outside of a 12-2 Purdue team at the top of the standings, the rest of the Big Ten still has very much to be decided. This can be represented by a total of eight teams sitting in a tie for second place or one game back.
Michigan State finds itself apart of this deadlock as it sits at 7-6 in conference play, just one game back of a four-way tie for second.
The Spartans have lost two of their last three, but were able to right the ship on Tuesday against Maryland by holding the Terps to 13.6% shooting from the perimeter.
On the other side, Ohio State continues to struggle to find any success in conference play. The Buckeyes have lost 10 of their last 11 games in the Big Ten.
Although these results are grim, Ohio State still has enough quality opponents on its resume to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.
To pick which team will gain ground on a crowded Big Ten leaderboard, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Michigan State vs. Ohio State.
Tom Izzo’s squad can still do a lot to boost its tournament resume, thanks to having seven games remaining on its schedule.
Currently, the Spartans are projected in the 8-to-9 seed range.
The majority of Michigan State’s success has been driven by its play on the defensive end. The Spartans rank 26th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency by extending their defense on the perimeter and limiting second-chance opportunities.
By crashing the defensive glass, Michigan State will take away a key piece of Ohio State’s offense.
The Buckeyes are grabbing offensive rebounds on 33.6% of their field goal attempts, the 38th-highest rate in the country. Expect an uptick in one-and-done trips for Ohio State on Sunday.
In addition to limiting their second chances, the Spartans will look to minimize the Buckeyes’ success in the mid-range.
Overall, Ohio State is scoring 56.7% of its points from 2-point range, the 35th-highest rate in the country.
However, Michigan State boasts the second-lowest mid-range field goal percentage, according to Haslametrics, allowing opponents to shoot just 31.2% on average from this range.
On the offensive end, Michigan State will look to dominate the time of possession and create high-percentage interior shots as a result of a high assist rate.
The Spartans rank 291st nationally in Adjusted Tempo, averaging just 65 possessions per game.
Look for Michigan State to limit the Buckeyes’ offensive while slowing things down when it’s in possession.
There are few more intriguing spots in college basketball than a team playing in desperation mode.
This is exactly where Ohio State finds itself as it currently sits on the outside looking in to an NCAA tournament birth.
If the Buckeyes want any chance of making the Big Dance, they must defend their home court against the Spartans.
Given this urgency, I expect Ohio State to be locked in on both ends of the floor, particularly on the defensive end.
Much of the Buckeyes’ struggles can be attributed to a defense ranking 93rd nationally in adjusted efficiency.
Ohio State’s defense has been particularly poor in defending the perimeter in Big Ten play, allowing teams to shoot 40.4% of their shots from beyond the arc, resulting in 33.7% of their points.
Luckily, this is not an area Izzo’s offense will look to attack, as the Spartans have shot just 31.2% of their total field goal attempts from 3-point range, the lowest rate in the Big Ten.
Where Izzo and the Spartans will look to create offensively is in the mid-range through their 58.1% assist rate (30th nationally).
Preventing penetration is one of the few areas Ohio State’s defense has been successful at, allowing just 48.4% of its points to come from 2-point range, the lowest rate in the Big Ten.
If Ohio State wants a chance to start to build momentum, it will have to give its best effort on the defensive end against a slow and methodical Spartans offense.
Michigan State vs Ohio State Betting Pick
This is a pure desperation spot for an Ohio State team starving for a victory in Big Ten play.
As a result, I believe we get one of the Buckeyes’ best efforts on Sunday afternoon. This effort will translate most directly on the defensive end, where they have struggled to string together stops.
This defensive progression — combined with a Michigan State team wanting to turn all its matchups into rock fights — gives value on the total here.
Look for this game to be won on the defensive end in a classic Big Ten rock fight.
Pick: Under 136.5 or Better
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