College Basketball Odds, Pick, Prediction: Nevada vs. UNLV (Tuesday, February 1)
David Becker/Getty Images. Pictured: Grant Sherfield.
- The UNLV Rebels host the Nevada Wolf Pack in some late-night Mountain West college basketball action.
- The Rebels enter as short favorites over the Wolf Pack, but Nevada leads the all-time series and own a winning record in Las Vegas.
- Check out Keg's top bet for the Silver State Series below.
Nevada vs. UNLV Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
UNLV will return home after a two-game road trip during which it went 1-1. The Rebels suffered a blowout loss on the road to San Diego State, 80-55, but bounced back quickly to knock off Colorado State, 88-74, on their home court.
The upset ended a five-game winning streak for the Rams and marked just their second loss of the season. The Rebels will also be looking to win two games in a row for the first time in 2022. UNLV hasn’t had a streak of any kind this year.
The Rebels are 12-9 on the season but right in the middle of the pack in the Mountain West, sitting sixth in the conference at 4-4.
Standing in the Rebels’ way of their first win streak are the Nevada Wolf Pack. Nevada has lost two in a row and three of its last four. However, two of those losses have come against two of the top three teams in the Mountain West in Wyoming and Colorado State.
Nevada is just behind UNLV in the conference standings at 3-4, but it’s just 9-9 on the season.
This season, the Wolf Pack are only 1-4 in road games while also recording a 1-4 against-the-spread record. UNLV, meanwhile, is 10-3 at home but has struggled to cover the spread, sitting at just 4-8 on the season.
And the Rebels are even worse after a win, posting a 2-9 ATS record.
This will be the 34th meeting in the Silver State Series. The Wolf Pack not only lead the all-time series, 18-16, but they’re also 9-8 at UNLV. Nevada is on an eight-game win streak over UNLV. The Rebels haven’t beaten UNLV since February 2018. Can they end that streak on Tuesday night?
The Wolf Pack are fifth in the Mountain West and 111th in Division I, scoring 72.8 points per game.
They’re led by Grant Sherfield, who is posting 18.3 points per game to lead the team in scoring. He also records 6.2 assists, which also leads the team. Warren Washington has been a force on the glass for the Pack, leading the squad with 6.2 rebounds per game. He ranks 10th in the Mountain West in that area.
While both have been incredibly important to the Wolf Pack’s effort, another player has stepped up recently for Nevada. Over the last 10 games, Desmond Cambridge has been posting 15.6 points per game while averaging 2.7 made 3s.
The emergence of Cambridge couldn’t be better for the Wolf Pack, who have struggled with perimeter shooting. Nevada is hitting just 31% from deep, ranking 289th in the country and last in the Mountain West.
But when it comes to free throws, Nevada has been consistent, It sits second in the MWC at 75.4%.
On defense, the Wolf Pack have had issues all over. Teams are posting an effective field goal percentage of 52.6% against Nevada, ranking 284th nationally. Nevada also ranks outside the top 250 in defending 2- and 3-point shots.
So, how is it 155th in defensive efficiency? Two 7-footers in Will Baker and Washington have been dominant in the paint. Both rank inside the top 15 in the MWC in rebounding.
The Wolf Pack force an average of 13.4 turnovers per game. But teams are still posting 76.4 points per game against Nevada.
UNLV hasn’t been strong offensively, but can it step up against a lacking Nevada defense?
The Runnin’ Rebels offense averages just 69.7 points per game, ranking outside the top 200 in 2- and 3-point shooting. But they have been able to limit turnovers, and they have one elite weapon on offense.
In UNLV’s last game, Bryce Hamilton set a career-high, scoring 42 points to lead the Rebels past Colorado State. On Monday, he was honored as the Mountain West Player of the Week after averaging 32.5 points per game and hitting more than 50% from the field and 3-point range during the Rebels’ two games last week.
On the season, Hamilton is averaging 21 points per game, which leads all of the Mountain West.
UNLV has limited opposing teams to 67.7 points per game on defense. It has explicitly been excellent at limiting attempts. Teams are recording just 56.2 field goal attempts against the Rebels.
UNLV doesn’t excel at forcing turnovers, but that may be an area it can exploit against Nevada, which loses possession 13.6 times per game.
Nevada vs. UNLV Betting Pick
One final area that will play a huge factor in this game is free-throw shooting. Both of these teams foul a lot and have been successful in drawing fouls — both teams average roughly 17 fouls per game and draw more than 18 per contest.
Nevada has been considerably better from the free-throw line. It has also dominated UNLV in recent history. And while Bryce Hamilton is one of the best players — if not the best player — in the Mountain West, it takes more than one player to win a game.
I’ll take the points with the Pack in the Silver State Series.
Pick: Nevada +1.5 or better