College Basketball Odds, Pick & Preview for Oregon State vs. USC (Thursday, Jan. 13)
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Isaiah Mobley.
- Andy Enfield's USC Trojans go to battle against Wayne Tinkle's Oregon State Beavers in Thursday Pac-12 action.
- The Trojans are coming off their first loss of the season, while the Beavers have disappointed after last season's Cinderella run in the NCAA Tournament.
- Kyle Remillard is backing a motivated USC squad on Thursday and explains why below.
Oregon State vs. USC Odds
|Oregon State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
USC suffered a road loss to Stanford on Tuesday night, which ended its time as one of the last remaining unbeaten teams in the country.
The Trojans rolled through the early part of their season, winning the first 13 games by an average margin of 14 points. Behind a top-30 offensive and defensive efficiency ranking, USC looks to get back on track in Pac-12 play.
The same can’t be said for Oregon State, whose Cinderella run in last year’s NCAA Tournament seems nearly impossible to replicate.
The Beavers own a 3-11 record after suffering a 10-game losing streak. The program’s only wins have come against teams that rank outside the top 100. Most recently, Oregon State suffered a 78-76 loss to in-state rival Oregon due to a late go-ahead 3-pointer.
𝐈𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐯𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐬.❄️
The go-ahead bucket, courtesy of @ericwilliams708. #GoDucks | #AlwaysUspic.twitter.com/JiyIedl3ud
— Oregon Men's Basketball (@OregonMBB) January 11, 2022
One team will own a dominant advantage in the paint, which should help pave its way to a cover.
It’s been a long painful start to the season for Wayne Tinkle’s group that can’t seem to catch a break.
Owning a 3-11 record, five of the Beavers’ losses have come to teams that rank outside the top 100. In its only other matchup against a top-10 opponent, Oregon State was demolished by Arizona, 90-65. Now, it matches up against another top-tier Pac-12 team in USC.
Oregon State has just two players who are averaging double-digit points per game in Jarod Lucas and Warith Alatishe.
Lucas is the only outside shooting threat on the roster and has hit 38% of his 87 attempts from deep this season. Outside of him, the rest of the group has connected on 37-of-147 good for a measly 25%.
The bulk of the Beavers’ offense comes inside the arc, as they find 61% of their points from 2-point range. The offense hits 52% of its attempts on such shots but will have a tough time dealing with the height of the USC defense.
Oregon State owns the worst defensive efficiency ranking in the Pac-12. Opponents have hit 52% of their field goal attempts, which ranks outside the top 240 in the country.
The Beavers have been awful at securing defensive rebounds, as opponents have extended possessions on 32% of their misses.
USC slipped up on Tuesday in its first loss of the season to Stanford. The game was lost at the 3-point line, where the Trojans hit 6-of-21 from behind the arc but allowed Stanford to hit 42% of its 24 shots.
The Trojans’ greatest strength is their height, as they line up as the third-tallest team in the nation with four starters who stand six-foot-eight or taller. That length has helped them become the third-best 2-point defense in the nation, holding teams to 40% on such shot attempts.
They’ve been equally strong defending the arc (besides last game), ranking 25th in the country.
USC owns a top-20 defensive efficiency ranking and has helped its opponents to just 62 points per game. That defense should excel matching up against an Oregon State offense that ranks outside the top 200 in scoring.
Though USC lost one Mobley brother to the NBA, it returned Isaiah Mobley, who has been a double-double machine. He’s averaging 15 points and 9.4 rebounds per game while hitting 46% from the perimeter.
There are three other starters who are scoring double-digit points. The group is sound offensively and only turns the ball over on 15% of its possessions, good for top-25 in the country.
Oregon State vs. USC Betting Pick
This is a matchup between two programs heading in opposite directions in the Pac-12.
Oregon State is plummeting and has lost to some of the bottom-tier teams in the country in Samford, Princeton, and UC Davis. USC, meanwhile, is flying high this season and has won 10 of its 13 games by double digits.
USC thrives at scoring in the paint, where it hits on 55% of its attempts. That’s a major flaw in the Oregon State defense, as it ranks 275th in defending such attempts.
The Beavers defense also allows offensive rebounds on 32% of opponents’ misses (298th in the country). The Trojans will lean on their height advantage at all five positions to find many second-chance opportunities.
This is a horrible matchup for Oregon State, which has relied on scoring in the paint. The Beavers offense takes 71% of its shot attempts from 2-point territory, and scoring inside the arc is going to be a huge challenge against the USC defense.
Expect Andy Enfield to have the Trojans ready to go coming off their first loss of the season. Meanwhile, Oregon State will likely be demoralized after its buzzer-beating loss to Oregon last time out with the season slipping out of its grasp.
Pick: USC -15.5 (Play to -17)
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