College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions for San Diego State vs Colorado State (Wednesday, Jan. 18)
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego State’s Matt Bradley.
San Diego State vs Colorado State Odds
|San Diego State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Colorado State Odds|
-110o / -110u
The Aztecs will look to get back on track after a letdown loss last time out against New Mexico. San Diego State lost, 76-67, in part to its defensive performance. New Mexico became the first opponent to score more than 75 points against San Diego State since Arkansas did so back in late November.
Unfortunately for the Aztecs, they’ll try to bounce back against a team fresh off one of the wildest come-from-behind wins of the season.
Colorado State forces OT on this fantastic inbounds play! pic.twitter.com/zdfBeLuRcY
— Heat Check CBB (@HeatCheckCBB) January 15, 2023
This half-court buzzer-beater to send the game to overtime was only one of the many highlight reel-worthy plays by Isaiah Stevens during his 33-point, eight rebounds, nine-assist performance.
Will Stevens and the Rams bring that momentum back to Fort Collins? Well, they do say what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.
Since conference play began, the Aztecs have had the second-most efficient offense in the Mountain West.
More importantly, they’ve been the second-best team from beyond the arc, hitting 41.7% of their 3-point attempts while also seeing 39.1% of their points come from deep.
I fully expect the Aztecs to light it up from deep against the Rams. Colorado State has been the worst team in the Mountain West in defending the perimeter, allowing opposing teams to hit 41.7% from long range.
On defense, SDSU’s main priority will be finding a way to stop Colorado State around the rim. The Aztecs have struggled to limit opponents inside, allowing a field goal percentage of 64.1% at the rim and 50% in the paint. Colorado State has been one of the best teams in the country when it comes to inside efficiency, hitting 78.1% at the rim and 49.8% in the paint.
However, the Rams take the majority of their shots above the break, where San Diego State has been much better. In fact, the Aztecs have held opponents to 32.7% from those spots.
And while San Diego State has been great when it comes to forcing turnovers, it likely won’t have those same opportunities against a CSU team that gives the ball up on just 14.5% of possessions.
The Rams have a thriving offense with Stevens leading the charge.
On the defensive end, however, there are some serious concerns I fully expect San Diego State to take advantage of. The Rams’ best bet to keep this game close is turning it into a high-scoring track meet.
One of the few defensive areas the Rams could find success in is forcing turnovers. The Aztecs have been the worst ball-control team in the Mountain West, turning the ball over on 21% of their possessions.
When it comes to rebounding, I don’t see the Rams standing much of a chance. San Diego State comes down with an offensive rebound on 33.1% of opportunities, while it pulls down 75.5% of available defensive boards. It’s also held opposing teams to just 7.6 offensive and 19.8 defensive rebounds per game.
San Diego State vs Colorado State Betting Pick
Colorado State may be riding high right now after an impressive showing at UNLV, but I don’t think it’ll bring that Vegas hot streak home.
San Diego State was the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West, and I expect it to come into this game with a vengeance after dropping its first conference game to New Mexico.
These teams met three times a season ago, and while Colorado State did win one of those meetings, it never scored more than 60 points in any of them.
SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher knows how to limit this Rams offense, and I fully expect the Aztecs to do so once again on Wednesday night.
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