San Diego State vs. Fresno State College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Teams Break Triple Digits in Mountain West Clash? (Saturday, February 19)
Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured Orlando Robinson.
- Mountain West action continues on Saturday night as the San Diego State Aztecs take on the Fresno State Bulldogs.
- The Aztecs are outside of the top three in the conference standings but are still jockeying for position in terms of conference tournament seeding.
- Kyle Remillard breaks down this game and shares his top betting pick below.
San Diego State vs. Fresno State Odds
|San Diego State Odds|
-110o / -110u
|Fresno State Odds|
-110o / -110u
Fresno State and San Diego State are both on the outside looking into the NCAA Tournament.
Fresno State has put together an impressive 16-9 season, but the recent struggles have all but erased a chance at an at-large bid. The Bulldogs have dropped three games in a row to Wyoming, Colorado State and UNLV.
San Diego State has moved in the opposite direction, winning four games in a row. Three of the victories came over the bottom teams in the conference. But the Aztecs had an impressive 19-point victory over Utah State last time out.
San Diego State is currently slated on the First Four Out according to Joe Lunardi’s bracketology.
These teams have a similar identity thriving on the defensive end but struggling offensively.
San Diego State’s offense can be tough to watch at times. The group ranks 200th in offensive efficiency and puts up just 66 points per game.
The offense is reliant solely on the shoulders of senior guard Matt Bradley. He averaged 18 points per game, which is the only player on the roster averaging above double figures. Bradley has been on fire from outside this season, hitting 42% of his 100 attempts. He’s exceeded the 20-point mark in five of his last six games.
The Aztecs are hitting just 48% of their field goal attempts which ranks 248th in the country. When removing Bradley from the equation, that number drops down to 42% from his supporting cast.
Brian Dutcher’s squad finds its victories on the defensive end of the floor. San Diego State owns the number one defensive efficiency rating in the country. It allows opponents to hit just 44% from the field which is eighth nationally. The Aztecs are specifically dominant in shutting down opponents inside the perimeter. That will be crucial as Orlando Robinson is the main source of offense for Fresno State.
Fresno State botched its chances at a potential at-large bid with its recent struggles. The source of the three-game losing streak has been the lack of offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs have shot below 40% from the field in each one of those matchups.
Seven-foot center Orlando Robinson is a monster in the Mountain West. Robinson is the leading scorer, putting up 18 points a game to go along with eight rebounds per contest. He’s shooting 47% from the field but was shut down by UNLV last time out, hitting just 3-of-14 from the field. I expect another tough matchup for Robinson against a stout San Diego State front court.
The Fresno State basketball program follows a similar blueprint to San Diego State’s. The squad owns the 116th offensive efficiency rating but thrives defensively where it ranks 25th in efficiency.
Thanks to Orlando Robinson holding down the paint, the group is elite at securing defensive rebounds. His presence also forces opponents to chuck a boatload of threes rather than attacking the rim. Opponents have taken 42% of their shot attempts from beyond the perimeter against Fresno State. That will be an interesting dynamic to watch as San Diego State ranks 329th in 3-point attempts this season.
San Diego State vs. Fresno State Betting Pick
This game has the potential to be one of the lowest scoring games that we have seen all season.
Fresno State plays with the third slowest tempo in the entire country this season. The Bulldogs refuse to push the ball in transition, even if they have a numbers advantage. Less than 17% of the offense’s possessions end in a transition opportunity which is 16th lowest in the nation according to Hoop-Math.
San Diego State plays with a carbon-copy playing style. The Aztecs offense ranks 262nd in terms of tempo according to Kenpom. The defense forces offenses to utilize an average of 19 seconds on the shot clock before forcing a contested shot attempt.
San Diego State’s defense ranks 199 spots better than its offense in terms of efficiency. Fresno State’s defense is slotted 91 spots ahead of its defense in the same stat.
San Diego State has a group of interior defenders that it will throw at Orlando Robinson to slow him down. Meanwhile, Fresno State has elite guard defenders that will be able to key in on Matt Bradley.
This matchup will be played at an incredibly slow pace that has minimal transition looks. Combined with two elite defenses and two offenses that can be hard to watch at times. Those are all the key ingredients needed for an under, even one that is below 120. There is a chance this game is played in the high 40’s and doesn’t hit triple digits.
Pick: Under 114 | Play to 113
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