College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions for Texas State vs. Troy (Friday, February 25)
Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Troy Trojans forward Efe Odigie (23) and Troy Trojans guard Christyon Eugene (5)
Texas State vs. Troy Odds
|Texas State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Texas State secured the Sun Belt regular-season title with its victory over South Alabama on Wednesday night. That makes Terrence Johnson 2-for-2 in his first seasons leading Texas State. Johnson couldn’t celebrate with the team after clinching last season as he was isolated with COVID-19, but he embraced the moment this year.
THIS FEELING pic.twitter.com/6a2pexSshG
— Texas State MBB (@TXStateMBB) February 24, 2022
Johnson has led the group to a 23-6 record in Sun Belt play over the last two years. The Bobcats are winners of eight straight and hope to continue that momentum into the Sun Belt tournament.
Texas State will travel to face off against Troy in the final regular-season game for each side.
Troy has locked in the three-seed in the Sun Belt tournament and has relied on its defense to get them there.
This is a potential matchup of the Sun Belt Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament Championship, but motivation will be a concern for Texas State.
Texas State locked up the No. 1 seed for the Sun Belt tournament. They hope to avoid the same misfortune as last season when the Bobcats were bounced in the first round in an overtime loss to Appalachian State.
Texas State plays at a snail’s pace that ranks 337th in the nation, according to KenPom. But the Bobcats have lived off the mantra that defense wins championships. Despite owning the 337th-tallest roster in the country, the Bobcats are tenacious on the defensive end. They have pesky guard defenders that force teams into tough situations. They rank 26th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, and fifth in the nation in non-steal turnover percentage.
Offensively, Texas State has a well-balanced, experienced group of five seniors who all average between eight and 13 points per game. Caleb Asberry is the leading scorer for the offense and main outside shooting threat. Asberry has connected on 37% of his 144 three-point attempts this season.
The Bobcats were defeated by Troy at home to open conference play this season. Troy was able to dominate the paint offensively while holding Texas State to 5-of-21 from three-point territory.
Troy has put together a nice bounce-back season with a 19-9 record after closing out last season on a seven-game losing streak with a 11-17 record. The Trojans are locked in to the three-seed in the Sun Belt tournament but will use this game as fuel for momentum.
The key to Troy’s success this season has been its depth. The program ranks first in the nation in bench minutes utilizing an ever-evolving rotation that has 13 players averaging double-digit minutes per game. With that has come a well-balanced scoring attack with 10 players averaging between four and 11 points per game.
The continuously changing lineup has led to some issues offensively. The Trojans rank 249th in offensive efficiency rating and have turned the ball over at the 341st-highest rate in the country.
The group has struggled shooting both inside and out. Guards Duke Deen and Desmond Williams are the primary shooting threats on the roster. The duo has converted on 36% of their combined 275 three-point attempts this season. But the rest of the roster has converted on just 30% from deep.
Troy excels defensively as it owns the best defensive efficiency rating in the Sun Belt. The defense allows 66 points per game, which is good for top 100 in the country. The group has been efficient in defending both the perimeter and two-point field goal attempts on the season.
In the first matchup, the Trojans held Texas State to 37% shooting from the field. That was the Bobcats third-lowest field goal percentage of the season.
Texas State vs. Troy Betting Pick
The weakness to Texas State’s roster is its lack of height. The Bobcats rank 337th in the country in average height, according to KenPom.
That was the difference maker in the first matchup between these two teams as the Bobcats had no answer to slow down Efe Odigie. Odigie, a 6-foot-9 forward, scored a season-high 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting in that matchup.
Troy utilized its depth in that first matchup as well with nine players seeing the court for double-digit minutes. Texas State was reliant on its starting lineup that was on the floor for nearly the entirety of the game.
I anticipate a let down from Texas State here as this will be its first matchup since clinching the Sun Belt regular-season title. Troy will look for the season sweep over Texas State and momentum heading into the conference tournament.
Pick: Troy +1.5 | Bet to: Pick’em
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