Villanova vs. Seton Hall Odds & Picks: Where Does the Value Lie in College Basketball Clash?
Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jared Rhoden (Seton Hall)
- After close to a two week break, No. 22 Villanova is back in action as it travels to Newark to take on No. 15 Seton Hall.
- The Wildcats have disappointed so far this season and will be without Caleb Daniels in this contest.
- Charlie Disturco breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Villanova vs. Seton Hall Odds
-110o / -110u
|Seton Hall Odds|
-110o / -110u
Big East play is underway and two of the preseason favorites to lift the conference trophy meet on Saturday night.
Villanova — on a near two-week break — will travel to Newark to take on Seton Hall. The Pirates themselves had their own COVID issues and returned to action on Wednesday. Both teams will be short handed.
Seton Hall returned after a 17-day layoff and fell to Providence to open Big East play. Villanova, meanwhile, hasn’t been in action since their second-half comeback win against Xavier on Dec. 21.
Can the Wildcats put aside the near two-week layoff and take down Seton Hall on the road? Or will the Pirates — who could be without their bigs again — bounce back in their first home game of conference play?
Villanova — which already has a thin rotation — will be short handed on Saturday. Senior guard Caleb Daniels — who averages 9.8 points per game on 37.8% shooting from 3 — is out with COVID.
This is a Wildcats team amid a tumultuous season. They dominated Tennessee and took down a red-hot Xavier. But they have also collapsed in the back half of multiple games due to depth issues.
They also recently went cold from beyond the arc prior to their break in action.
The strength of Villanova is its offense. Collin Gillespie runs the point and is as polished as any player in the Big East. He leads the team with 16.1 points per game and shoots 39.6% from beyond the arc.
Nova takes care of the ball — it ranks eighth in turnover rate — and shoots the 3 well. That’s where the Wildcats live and die, as nearly 50% of their shots come from beyond the arc.
In their two recent losses to Baylor and Creighton, Villanova shot 10-for-50 from 3. The Wildcats added a 6-for-21 performance in their last game against Xavier, but the defense was the ultimate difference maker in the 13-point win.
Their biggest offensive weakness comes inside the paint due to a lack of size in the frontcourt. Eric Dixon is the center at 6-foot-8.
The Wildcats do rebound well, but their efficiency inside the paint doesn’t follow suit. Nova is 216th in 2-point offense, shooting 48.3% on attempts.
The big storyline for Seton Hall entering Saturday afternoon is the availability of Tyrese Samuel and Ike Obiagu.
The two were still in COVID protocols when the program resumed play against Providence, and their absences had an immediate impact.
Both players provide stability inside the paint — especially the 7-foot-2 Obiagu, who averages nearly three blocks per game in 17 minutes. Meanwhile, Samuel ranks inside the top 100 in offensive rebounding.
If the two return and the Pirates are back to full health, this is a well-rounded team that can beat anybody in college basketball.
Seton Hall’s strength is its defense. While the Pirates don’t force many turnovers, they keep opponents off of the glass and rank 11th in eFG% and seventh in 3-point defense (25.7%). Much of that success comes from the Pirates’ length and athleticism from their guards.
At any given time, Kevin Willard can opt for a lineup where the shortest players on the floor are 6-foot-6 Kadary Richmond and Myles Cale — the latter sits at 19th in the country in steal rate.
Offensively, this is a team that lives and dies with Jared Rhoden. The senior takes 28% of the shots when on the floor, using his strength to create inside the paint. Bryce Aiken (11.2 PPG) has also stepped up in his sixth season.
The Pirates won’t beat you from beyond the arc — they rank 309th in 3-point percentage — but they won’t shoot themselves in the foot either. They take care of the ball, crash the offensive glass and attack the rim.
Villanova vs. Seton Hall Betting Pick
Despite the uncertainty that surrounds Samuel and Obiagu’s status (I am more pessimistic than not), Seton Hall matches up well here to get the home win.
Villanova loves to shoot the 3 ball, and that’s where the Pirates thrive. Not only should their length disrupt the outside shooters of Gillespie and Justin Moore, but the Wildcats’ thin rotation should also play a difference as the second half progresses. Daniels is a bigger loss than some people may think.
Everything that Villanova does, Seton Hall can match that intensity on defense. Second-chance opportunities will be limited and 3s will come contested. The Pirates will be able to score inside and get theirs, too.
KenPom has Villanova by one, while T-Rank has the Pirates as one-point home favorites. A line is currently not out on the game, but I think Seton Hall has the advantage in Saturday afternoon’s affair.
This is Seton Hall’s biggest home game of the season and they know it. I expect them to show up ready — with or without Samuel and Obiagu.
Back Willard and the Pirates up to -2.