College Basketball Player Props: 3 Bets, Including Armando Bacot & Brad Davison (Feb. 5)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Brad Davison.
We’re getting closer to that 3-0 day — I can feel it.
We were one rebound shy of a winning Saturday last week. Now, we get one of the biggest slates to date with multiple high-profile matchups to capitalize on.
These selections correlate to the timeless strategy of finding value: “buy low and sell high.”
Houstan and the Wolverines are set to take on Purdue at Mackey Arena, which means Michigan’s big man Hunter Dickinson will likely be kept quiet.
The market seems to think the Wolverines will hang around in this one, as the spread keeps ticking their way. So if Dickinson is kept quiet, the Wolverines will need someone to score, and that’s where Houstan steps in.
The 6-foot-8 freshman has had a fine season, as there were stretches of poor performances by Michigan as a whole, but in its recent surge, Houstan has been right in the middle of it. In his last four games, he has posted 19, 18, 11 and six points.
That six-point outing is what created this buy-low opportunity. Houstan has shown that he is willing and able to make shots from behind the arc, and that is one area where Purdue has been hurt this year. Of all of the points the Boilermakers have given up, 37% have come from deep — good for the 21st-highest mark in that category.
Houstan averages over 1.5 buckets from 3-point range per game. If he can sink two today, he should be in great shape to go well over this number.
This season, the Tar Heels’ big man has been an absolute force in the paint, posting numerous double-doubles with large point and rebound numbers.
However, today, that will all be different.
For once, Bacot will be the smaller man in the paint. Duke’s Mark Williams will have the height advantage and is plenty strong enough to bang with Bacot down low. Williams is also a very imposing defender, as he has the eighth-highest block rate in the nation.
Bacot’s number may be awe-inspiring, but he has not had big performances in the few times he has faced a superior big man this season. Early on, he matched up with Purdue’s twin towers of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. Bacot recorded only two points and went 1-of-6 from the field.
Another case came against Michigan and big man Hunter Dickinson. Bacot got his share of boards but posted only 11 points on 5-of-10 shooting.
This number is a full point higher than what Bacot averages, and it’s likely inflated due to the magnitude of the Duke-North Carolina matchup. Williams will limit Bacot in all facets today.
Davison’s hopeful game script is very similar to that of the Houstan pick above, but Davison is far more deadly from deep.
What also helps him out in this matchup is that he’s at home, where he performs significantly better. Davison averages nearly 17 points per game with an average of 2.9 3s made.
He will have everything in his favor here.
The Badger sniper is due to bounce after a rough showing against Illinois in when he went 3-of-12 from the field and missed every one of his six 3-point attempts.
This matchup against the Nittany Lions is also very juicy to someone with his shooting ability. Penn State is 246th in 3-point percentage allowed and gives up the 51st-most points from the long ball.
So, expect Davison to get right at home here.