While Duke-UNC and Michigan-Michigan State steal the headlines — and have the attention of most bettors — sharps have been looking elsewhere for value on the massive Saturday slate.
They've bounced from the SEC to the Big East to the Mountain West this afternoon, hitting games ranging from 2 to 4 p.m. ET.
Let's take a look.
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Texas A&M @ Mississippi State
2 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Texas A&M (moved from +12 to +10.5)
Bettors aren't exactly decided on this SEC point spread. Fifty-six percent are backing Mississippi State despite a double-digit spread, which isn't too surprising considering its better record, both overall (21-9 vs. 13-16) and in conference (9-8 vs. 6-11).
On top of that, the Bulldogs are playing on their home court, and celebrating senior day, two things that tend to draw public bettors.
But even with a slight majority taking the home team, this line has moved toward Texas A&M. The Aggies have fallen from +12 to +10.5 since opening, and are even listed +10.5 at some shops.
Much of the reason for the line move has been the overload of money pouring onto A&M. The 44% of bettors taking the points have generated an impressive 96% of actual dollars being wagered. That certainly creates a monetary liability for sportsbooks, but perhaps more importantly, it reveals that the Aggies are drawing much bigger bets. And since sharps are far more likely to be the ones making big bets, that serves as a good indication of professional action.
Confirming that indication has been a Sports Insights Bet Signal — triggered whenever sharp action causes a market-wide line move. In this case, the move came at the opening number of +12.
Georgetown @ Marquette
2:30 p.m. ET | FOX
Sharp angle: Georgetown (moved from +10 to +9.5)
A similar line pattern has taken place in this Big East matchup. Like Mississippi State, Marquette is playing its final home game, and has drawn a majority of bettors despite a double-digit opening line.
Marquette enters today's game on a three-game skid, but still sits four games ahead of Georgetown in the Big East, which also helps explain the confidence from bettors.
Even with 57% percent of bettors behind them, though, the Golden Eagles have fallen from +10 to +9.5.
As was the case with Mississippi State, Georgetown's bettors have accounted for a significantly higher percentage of money. The 43% backing has generated 59% of actual dollars, to be exact, once again revealing the opinion of bigger, sharper bettors.
UNLV @ Colorado State
4 p.m. ET | ESPN3
Sharp angle: UNLV (moved from +3 to +2.5)
Generally, the public doesn't like laying points on worse teams, but this is senior day, after all. Colorado State is three games back of UNLV in the Mountain West, 4.5 games back overall, and most bettors are still willing to lay points on the Rams because of their home-court advantage in the season finale.
Following the same trend as the two games above, Colorado State's line has fallen despite its 67% backing thanks to some sharp action.
The one-third of bets hitting UNLV has generated 69% of actual money, and a Sports Insights Bet Signal hit the Rebels this morning, causing sportsbooks to drop this line by a half point. A few spots have further dropped the line down to +2.
