CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Iowa State-Baylor, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baylor Bears forward Tristan Clark
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Tuesday night, headlined by Iowa State-Baylor (7 p.m. ET on ESPNews).
- Sharps are also getting down on North Carolina-NC State (9 p.m. ET on ESPN) and Purdue-Michigan State (9 p.m. on ESPN2).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.
With Clemson’s epic National Championship win over Alabama now in the books, sharp and recreational bettors alike have turned the page on college football. We still have a month left of NFL playoffs, but for all intents and purposes, it’s officially basketball season.
After examining today’s massive 27-game college basketball slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three big games that the wiseguys are targeting on Tuesday night, with one starting at 7, and two tipping off at 9 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Iowa State @ Baylor
7 p.m. ET | ESPNews
Sharp angle: Baylor (moved from +3 to +2.5)
Sharps and squares are on completely different sides of the spread in the most heavily bet game of the night.
Casual bettors fixate on rankings and win-loss records. So it’s no surprise that they’re hammering road favorite Iowa State (12-2, ranked 20th overall) against unranked Baylor (9-5).
But sharps know better than to bet a game based just on those two pieces of criteria.
What caused this peculiar line movement?
Wiseguys hammered Baylor +2.5, triggering a notable reverse line move. Also, the Bears’ 32% of bets have accounted for 81% of dollars, indicating heavy sharp wagers on their side, with smaller recreational bets on the road favorite.
Some pros might also be taking Baylor to not only cover, but win the game straight up, as the Bears fit the profitable Bet Labs PRO system, Moneyline Home Teams (67%, +127.1 units since 2005).
North Carolina @ NC State
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: NC State (moved from pick’em to -1.5)
Public bettors don’t know which way to go with this spread.
On one hand, they love UNC because it’s ranked higher (12 vs. 15) and they’re biased toward big name schools. However, they also see NC State with a better record (13-1 vs. 11-3) on its home court at pretty much a coin-flip price.
To wiseguys, though, the choice is clear.
This game opened at a pick’em. Currently, the Wolfpack are drawing 51% of bets, but their line has moved all the way to -1.5. Typically, even betting percentages might push the juice a cent or two, but they won’t cause nearly two full points of line movement.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked two notable steam and reverse line moves on NC State, indicating sharps hammering the Wolfpack at a pick’em. Those 51% of bets have also generated 69% of dollars — further evidence of smart money in NC State’s favor.
A cherry on top for Goodfellas sweating the Pack: NC State matches the same profitable Bet Labs PRO system as Baylor, Moneyline Home Teams (66.9%, +127.1 units since 2005).
Purdue @ Michigan State
9 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Purdue (moved from +8.5 to +7)
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement in this marquee Big Ten showdown.
Michigan State (13-2) is ranked 6th overall and playing in front of their raucous home crowd. As a result, the public has no worries about laying the points against road dog Purdue (9-5).
But wiseguys are expecting a close game.
This line opened at MSU -8.5. But despite receiving 74% of bets, the Spartans’ line has fallen all the way to -7. That reverse line movement is the first clear sign that smart money is hitting the road dog.
Pros hit Purdue at +9 and +8.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. We haven’t noticed a single conflicting signal (or buyback) on Michigan State.
Purdue’s 26% of bets also gives it heightened contrarian value in a very heavily bet game. Plus, the Boilermakers are getting a whopping 81% of dollars, signaling heavy smart money on their side.