Sharps kicked off conference tournament week in Green Dot City yesterday, cashing the Wofford Under and Akron Over en route to a 2-1 Monday. Nothing changes for the wiseguys. They'll look to post another winning day by focusing on soft, contrarian totals and undervalued spreads in high-pressure postseason games.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 18-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Pittsburgh vs. Boston College
7 p.m. ET | ESPNU
Sharp angle: Pittsburgh (moved from -1 to -1.5)
We're seeing an ultimate Pros vs. Joes disagreement with this ACC Tournament spread.
This game opened with Pittsburgh listed as a short 1-point favorite. Casual bettors take one look at the records and immediately grab Boston College. After all, Pitt is 13-18 and has lost 13 of its last 14 while BC sits at a slightly better 14-16.
But wiseguys know that if it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.
Currently 73% of bets are taking the Eagles, yet the line has either stayed the same or moved slightly toward Pitt. This is a perfect example of a sharp line freeze/reverse line move. Despite the heavy BC betting, oddsmakers refuse to hand out a better line to Pitt wiseguys because that's the side they're worried about.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on Pitt, without a single conflicting play (or buyback) on BC.
Appalachian State @ UL Monroe
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 155 to 156.5)
Public bettors don't know which way to go with this Sun Belt Conference first round over/under. But wiseguys have taken a clear side.
This total opened at 155. Normally, Average Joes will automatically go over, as they want to root for an action-packed, high-scoring game. But the high total has scared them off.
A slight majority of bets (52%) are taking the Under, yet we've seen the total rise to 156.5. Why would oddsmakers hand out an extra point to casual bettors if they're already leaning under? As always, follow the money.
The over is getting 48% of bets but nearly 65% of dollars — indicating big wagers banking on a higher-scoring game. We also noticed a big steam move on the Over, without any conflicting under plays.
An added bonus: This game is being played on UL Monroe's home court, so sharps don't need to worry about the neutral-court under trend.
North Dakota State vs. Nebraska Omaha
9 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 140.5 to 145.5)
Wiseguys are savvy tacticians. If you just look at the opening line compared to the current line you may not see when they get down. After all, line movement isn't that black and white. It's how the line moved throughout the day that gives you insight into how the pros are betting.
Sharps will even "set up" a line by banging one side, causing the line to move, then come back on the other side at a better number. Or they'll let public betting move the line and then pounce when it bottoms out.
This Summit League championship over/under is a perfect example.
This total opened at 144. Steady public betting (60%) on the under dropped the total all the way down to 140.5. That's when sharps hammered the deflated over, hitting the Over 140.5, Over 141 and Over 144.
This overload of smart money raised the total all the way up to 145.5.
