College Basketball Third State of the Big 12 Betting Report: New Value to Capitalize on?
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalen Coleman-Lands & Christian Braun (Kansas)
Wow, what a week we had in the Big 12 Conference. The best league in college basketball certainly did not disappoint.
The outlook of the conference was turned on its head, and I think Jon Rothstein described it as well as possible.
Things you didn't think you'd tweet: Baylor loses back-to-back home games after starting 15-0.
Nope. Just College Basketball.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) January 16, 2022
In our third edition of the State of the Big 12, we’ll recap the chaos that was and survey the new landscape of the conference. This past week created some value that we may need to capitalize on.
A New Favorite
The Baylor Bears came crashing down hard this week, as their undefeated run to begin the season ended after losing not once but twice. This has swung the door wide open for the Kansas Jayhawks.
Now, the Jayhawks had their share of drama this past week, as well. They were pushed to the brink by the Iowa State Cyclones. The teams combined to give us a wild ending that Kansas was fortunate to come out on top of.
The Jayhawks then made a statement on Saturday, as it rolled over the West Virginia Mountaineers. The win was crucial, as it seemed to get their offense back on the right foot and help build momentum to go forward.
They have reclaimed their preseason spot as the favorite to win the conference, as their odds are now +175. However, their path to hold onto it isn’t easy. Kansas still has to face Texas on the road and Baylor twice.
Speaking of those Bears, their hiccup only created more value on them, as they are now +210 to win the conference.
The Giant Killer
The Texas Tech Red Raiders were the first team to topple the mighty Baylor Bears in 21 games. However, they are no strangers to taking down top teams, as prior to their win against Baylor, the Red Raiders defeated Tennessee and Kansas.
This Texas Tech team is built on solid defense, as it is No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. That suffocating defense can cause issues for any team the Red Raiders face.
They have already toppled the top two teams in the conference, so there is no reason to believe that they can’t win it outright. Their odds are still pretty juicy at +650.
The Red Raiders did just fall to Kansas State, but their offense was amid an adjustment as their leading scorer, Terrence Shannon Jr., returned from injury. The offense should continue to gel and only improve going forward, so the Red Raiders have tons of value in this conference market.
The Look Ahead
Tuesday, January 18th is the next slate the Big 12 Conference will treat us to. So, let’s peek at three of the biggest matchups and try to get ahead of the market.
Baylor vs. West Virginia
If you thought Baylor was good, just wait until you see it in revenge mode for this matchup. I expect the Bears to be motivated as ever.
They will have to be sharp, as the West Virginia pressure can not be taken lightly.
However, we saw this past Saturday where the Mountaineers can be exposed. They lack size on the inside and have poor rebounding numbers, so look for Kendall Brown and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua to be factors for Baylor.
I’ll be looking to grab the Bears if we get them under 10.
Kansas vs. Oklahoma
The revamped Jayhawks will head to Norman for a matchup with the Sooners.
Kansas’ offense looks revitalized recently with David McCormack being reinserted into the lineup.
Oklahoma will be no easy out at home, as it is 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency. I will not be expecting the defense to be dominant in this matchup, as these two teams are top 10 in effective field goal percentage.
We saw Baylor and Oklahoma fly over their total in a meeting earlier this year, and I’m expecting more of the same in this one. I’ll be playing the over at 145 or better.
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech
These two teams have already met once this season, and it was a defensive slugfest like we all expected.
The Cyclones took the first meeting, 51-47, but that game was in Ames, and the Red Raiders were missing their top two scorers.
The Red Raiders will play host in this one, and they will have Shannon Jr. and Kevin McCullar.
I expect Texas Tech to be sharp coming off of its loss to Kansas State, and it should win the second round in this war of offensive attrition.
I’ll be looking to grab the Red Raiders as four-point favorites or better.