NCAA Basketball Tournament Odds, Pick for Colorado vs Florida

NCAA Basketball Tournament Odds, Pick for Colorado vs Florida article feature image
Credit:

Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post. Pictured: KJ Simpson (Colorado)

Here's NCAA basketball tournament odds and a pick for Colorado vs Florida.

Colorado vs Florida Odds, Pick

Friday, Mar 22
4:30pm ET
TBS
Colorado Odds
Point SpreadTotal PointsMoneyline
+1
-110
158
-110o / -110u
-110
Florida Odds
Point SpreadTotal PointsMoneyline
-1
-110
158
-110o / -110u
-110
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

No. 10 seed Colorado enters its Round of 64 matchup against No. 7 seed Florida on the heels of a dominant play-in victory against Boise State. Florida, meanwhile, will look to bounce back after a horrendous showing in the SEC championship game against Auburn.


Colorado Buffaloes

The Buffaloes have carved out a reputation for offensive efficiency, ranking 27th in adjusted efficiency on that end, which is backed by an elite 20th rank in effective field goal percentage (eFG%). The Buffaloes shoot the ball well, especially from beyond the arc, where they have the eighth-best 3-point percentage in the nation.

However, Colorado's ball security has been less than stellar, ranking 262nd in turnover percentage. But that shouldn’t pose issues against a poor defensive turnover team like Florida.

On the rebounding front, Colorado's offensive rebounding is solid, ranking 82nd. The Buffaloes have also proven to be an exceptional free-throw shooting (ranking 13th in percentage), which should allow them to capitalize on extra opportunities against the Gators.

Conversely, on defense, Colorado presents a dominant front, ranked 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency. While its eFG% defense is good but not elite (86th), its ability to clean up the glass on the defensive end (29th in defensive rebounding) will be necessary to mitigate second-chance points against the Gators’ elite offensive rebounding.

Despite good defensive metrics overall, the Buffaloes struggle to force turnovers (295th), which might limit their chances for easy transition baskets.


Florida Gators

The Gators similarly exhibit a balanced and lethal offensive threat, reflected in their 15th rank in adjusted offensive efficiency. Despite a relatively average eFG% (129th), their prowess on the offensive boards (seventh in offensive rebounding) underscores a tenacity that can overwhelm defenses, particularly if Colorado fails to box out effectively.

The Gators' ability to draw fouls and get to the line (40th in free-throw rate) could prove crucial, though their free-throw shooting accuracy (226th) leaves much to be desired.

Defensively, Florida exhibits some vulnerabilities, notably in eFG% allowed (85th) and an inability to secure defensive rebounds (174th), which will prove particularly problematic against a Colorado team that excels in offensive rebounding.

Additionally, the Gators' struggle to force turnovers (319th) may not exploit one of Colorado's key offensive weaknesses.


Colorado vs. Florida

Betting Pick & Prediction

Considering the statistical analysis, taking Colorado to cover as 2-point underdogs emerges as the best bet for this matchup.

The Buffaloes' shooting efficiency, coupled with their offensive rebounding ability, positions them well to secure an outright win. Despite Florida's offensive rebounding prowess, Colorado's superior free-throw shooting and defensive rebounding should provide them with the edge in a likely tightly contested game.

Every advanced metric favors the Buffaloes in this matchup and the SEC tends to underperform during the NCAA Tournament, which makes this a perfect opportunity to fade the Gators.

Take Colorado and expect a potential underdog outright victory by the Buffaloes.

Pick: Colorado +2

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