NCAA Tournament Odds, Pick for Colorado State vs Texas

The Colorado State Rams made a statement on Tuesday night when they put on an absolute clinic in their first-round matchup. They clobbered the Virginia Cavaliers, who should have never made the tournament in the first place.

The Rams are now the 10-seed in the Midwest region and face the Texas Longhorns. It has been a bizarre last couple of weeks for the Horns, who have blown some massive leads late in games.

It's a fresh start for both teams, and this matchup has the potential to be a classic. Here are a few notable betting trends entering this game:

• The No. 7 seeds playing in the +3 to -3 line range have proven to be quite profitable over the long haul at 38-21 SU and 35-23-1 ATS since 2003.
• The 7 vs. 10 matchups have gone over the total 18 of 31 times since 2015 (58.8%).

If you told me that the Rams would beat Virginia by 25+ points and Isaiah Stevens would be held to five points in 35 minutes, I would have checked you into a mental institution. The Rams proved on Tuesday evening that they do not need to lean heavily on Stevens to win in the Big Dance.

However, I am taking the game with a grain of salt simply because the Hoos did not deserve to be in the Big Dance. That is a conversation for a different day, but if you plan on wagering on this matchup, I suggest that you do not get caught up in that box score.

The Mountain West Conference was among the best in the nation throughout the season as its teams earned six total bids. There is a ton to like about the makeup of the Rams, and they are primed to make a dark-horse run if they can get past the Longhorns.

Before we dive into the metrics, it is important to note that it will be the fifth game for the Rams in their last seven days. They are 210th in bench minutes, which means fatigue is a legitimate concern.

Besides the tired legs, it is not the easiest matchup for the Rams. They enter the contest among the top 40 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.

This matchup also features a terrific backcourt matchup between Isaiah Stevens vs Max Abmas as this will be appointment television.

Forward Nique Clifford is shooting 38% from deep, and a critical component of this game will be how the Rams shoot against a struggling Horns perimeter defense. The Rams shot 33% from 3 as a team, but they should sustain success throughout this contest.

Defensively, the Rams do not force turnovers and are mediocre out on the perimeter. If they do not contain the Horns' lethal attack, it could be a long night.

Rodney Terry's team has to figure it out in late-game situations. It is tough to blame everything on Terry, but he deserves the recent criticism.

The Horns embarrassingly blew another double-digit lead last week when they lost in the second round of the Big 12 tournament to Kansas State. The positive spin-zone for the Horns is that they have had a lot of time off to right the ship. Big man Dylan Disu injured his knee two games before the loss to Kansas State and didn't miss any games, but getting him some rest may have been a blessing in disguise.

To no surprise, many are expecting the Rams to pull off the upset, but I beg to differ. The Horns may not be the most talented team in the country, but I would argue their backcourt duo is the best in the country.

When you have Hunter and Abmas leading the charge, there is a reason they are 19th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They protect the basketball well and hit 75% of their free throws as a team. In the last two games, Abmas dropped 26 points against Kansas State while Hunter scored 30 against Oklahoma.

The Rams foul a bit too much to my liking, so the Horns can do some damage at the charity stripe. The biggest key for the Horns is containing the Rams' interior offensive attack, which ranks ninth in the country.

If Disu and the rest of the Horns can contain the Rams inside of the arc, I have a good feeling about them bouncing back with vengeance. The inevitable second half meltdown may be bound to happen with this group, but the time off should be beneficial.

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Truth be told, both teams have legitimate cases that they can win the game. However, the difference maker to me is undoubtedly Abmas for the Horns.

Abmas has been in the NCAA tournament multiple times, including the remarkable Cinderella run with Oral Roberts a few years ago. His ability to take over a game is not only a huge lift for the Horns, but it surely affects the opponent in a high-leverage situation.

A lot of people are going to ride with the Rams after being impressive against Virginia, but to me, that is pure fool's gold. I'll take my chances with the Horns one last time, and I'll happily go down with the ship if they let me down.

Pick: Texas -2.5 (Play to -3)