Duke vs Houston Pick & Prediction: Blue Devils to Pull Off Upset?

Below, we have a Duke vs Houston pick and prediction for the Sweet 16 matchup on Friday, March 29.

This should be a classic in the Sweet 16 between the South Region's top seed, Houston, and four seed, Duke.

Houston opened as a four-point favorite and remains right at that number at the time of writing.

Ironically, the Blue Devils' path to the second weekend was smoother, as they handled both Vermont and James Madison with relative ease.

After thrashing Longwood in the first round, Houston escaped Texas A&M in overtime in what was one of the most exciting games of the opening weekend.

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Few teams dominated their first two tournament games more than the Blue Devils.

Surprisingly, they did it with no bench after the Caleb Foster injury.

In the 64-47 victory over Vermont, each starter played at least 34 minutes, with guys like Jeremy Roach and Kyle Filipowski barely coming off the floor.

Foul trouble will be one of the more important aspects of this game, as Houston's roster is also pretty thin due to a couple of injuries.

Duke's starting five is as good as any in America, and freshman phenom Jared McCain continues to put on a show every time he steps on the floor.

McCain buried eight 3s and went for 30 points on 10-for-15 shooting against James Madison. He can catch fire from deep at any moment.

Houston has been elite at guarding the arc under Kelvin Sampson, so something will have to give in a matchup of good on good.

Another key for the Blue Devils will be keeping the Cougars off the offensive glass.

Houston's best offense is often getting rebounds off of misses from the outside and putting them back in.

Mark Mitchell and Filipowski will have their hands full against the powerful interior duo of J'Wan Roberts and Ja'Vier Francis.

If Duke can keep those guys off the glass and force the Houston guards to settle for jump shots, there's a formula for holding the Cougars scoreless for extended stretches.

In January, I thought Houston was playing better than anybody in America.

Fast forward to late March, and the core of the Cougars is still intact, but some key pieces are absent.

Joseph Tugler was a load on the inside and an offensive rebounding machine that could spell Francis when he needed a breather.

Now, the rim protection drops off when Francis has to go to the bench.

Houston had four of its five starters foul out in the win over A&M, yet still managed to win the game in overtime.

That speaks to the resiliency of this team and the culture Kelvin Sampson has built.

The Cougars' defense is always elite, but the Duke offense will be a real challenge and a contrast to what the Cougars saw for much of Big 12 play.

Duke's starting five includes three surefire pros and a veteran guard in Jeremy Roach, who plays similarly to Jamal Shead.

Shead is the better player, but Roach is savvy and will be a formidable test for the All-American.

Emanuel Sharp could very well be the X-factor in this game, as when he makes shots, the Cougars' offensive attack becomes much more efficient.

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Ultimately, I believe both teams have advantages.

Houston is the more physical team that has the potential to rough up Duke a bit and turn it over. The Cougars are likely more battle-tested, too.

That being said, the Blue Devils are the far more skilled offensive team, with each starter capable of getting a bucket in various ways.

With each side having some favorable matchups, I think the most likely result is a game that comes right down to the wire. Duke has too many shooters not to go on its fair share of runs, and Houston's offense has sputtered in recent weeks.

I'll take the Blue Devils to cover the number and potentially pull off the outright upset in what should be an incredible game.

Pick: Duke +4