Duke vs Pitt Odds, Pick for Tuesday

While many of the other conferences across the country have seen some chaotic results as teams dip into league play, the ACC has mostly held serve. The Duke Blue Devils remain among the favorites to win the conference, despite one of the league's notably unexpected results, a loss at Georgia Tech earlier this season.

As ACC play continues, dangerous spots will continue to pop up for Duke, starting with a road date to Pittsburgh Tuesday night. Pitt has been feisty this season, though it's still searching for a signature win for its postseason resume.

Here's Duke vs. Pitt odds and a pick for Tuesday.

So much can change in a month. Exactly 30 days ago, the Blue Devils had just lost back-to-back games, dropping their season record to 5-3. Starting guard Tyrese Proctor left the second of those losses due to an injury, with his availability in question moving forward.

The schedule afforded Duke some relief. The Blue Devils' late December and early January slate featured three mid-major opponents at home, two of the ACC's lesser foes (Notre Dame and Syracuse) and one real test, Baylor at Madison Square Garden.

Duke swept those six games, with a 5-1 record ATS.

In that period, the Duke offense began to look much sharper. A lot of that improvement can be credited to the emergence of freshman Jared McCain.

In Duke's first eight games, he averaged 7.6 points per game in 24 minutes of action. With Proctor sidelined for a few night, McCain saw an expanded role and took advantage. In Duke's last six games, McCain is scoring 18 points per game in 32 minutes of play.

His outside shooting — 46% on high volume over that stretch — has helped free more space for his teammates, like All-American candidate Kyle Filipowski.

With Proctor back from injury, but replaced in the starting lineup, head coach Jon Scheyer will need to find the right balance that best sets up his team for success. Proctor was a really valuable piece last year as a freshman, but hasn't found his footing this year.

In Duke's recent win over Notre Dame, he played 22 minutes and finished with no points and a single rebound.

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Jeff Capel started his time at Pitt with four straight losing seasons and no postseason appearances. That's well beneath the expectations for a program like Pitt, which went to five Sweet 16s and earned multiple top NCAA tournament seeds earlier this century.

Capel has more building to reach that standard, yet he's righted the ship. The Panthers took advantage of a down ACC last season, earned one of the final berths of the NCAA tournament and then won in the First Four and upset Iowa State in the Round of 64.

This season has been acceptable, but not inspiring. By KenPom's ranking, Pitt has beaten the 10 worst teams on its schedule and lost to the five best, all power-conference opponents. Individually, none of those losses are dire, but collectively, they leave a funky taste in your mouth.

There's good news. While senior Blake Hinson has been the star this season (averaging 19.1 PPG), the majority of his help comes via a youth movement.

Pitt's second leading scorer Carlton "Bub" Carrington is just a freshman, but he hit the ground running with 15+ points in his first four collegiate games. Carrington has made up a productive backcourt, next to Rhode Island transfer Ishmael Leggett.

Leggett has been a box score stuffer, notching four games with double figures scoring, plus five rebounds and five assists.

His status against Duke, however, is in question. He missed Pitt's last game against Louisville with an injury. He was replaced in the starting lineup by freshman Jaland Lowe, who had one of the best games of his young career in the increased playing time.

Defensively, Pitt has played well, yet there has to be some concern that 3-point shooting regression is due.

The Panthers have faced the sixth-lowest 3-point percentage this season, with some really notable cold nights by their opponents. Six Pitt opponents hit under 20% from beyond the arc. Pitt's four opponents before Louisville combined to shoot just 17-of-82, a hair over 20%.

Louisville rode the regression wave, hitting 10-of-21 from long range, the Cards' most makes from downtown all year. But these numbers suggest there's more hot shooting coming Pitt's way.

Admittedly, Duke has been my kryptonite this season. I've backed the Blue Devils three times and tried fading them four times, with just one win in those seven bets.

That's easily my worst effort of any team in college basketball.

Unlike Pitt, Duke's wins and losses haven't been tidily separated by the level of the opponent. Neutral wins over Michigan State and Baylor are notable, while losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech — both on the road — aren't the type of games a team with Final Four aspirations should drop.

The location of those two losses jumps out and brings up a larger issue. In two years at the helm, Scheyer is just 3-10 ATS in true road games. As a favorite on the road, he's covered the spread just twice in nine tries and lost five of those games outright.

Despite Pitt's incoming 3-point regression, I'll trust that trend here, especially since last season, Capel's Panthers were 3-0 straight up as home 'dogs.

Pick: Pitt +5 or Better

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