Houston vs Cincinnati Pick & Prediction: Team Total Target

The Houston Cougars have officially entered the conversation as one of the most elite teams in the sport. Many folks hesitated to group them with UConn or Purdue, but in the last few weeks, they've proven that they belong as one of the favorites to cut down the nets in April.

On Saturday, the Cougars took care of business in overtime against a terrific Baylor squad, despite the Bears' valiant comeback effort in the second half.

Below, we have a Houston vs Cincinnati pick and prediction for Tuesday.

If Jamal Shead continues to play at this level, Kelvin Sampson's team will be in Phoenix in April. The question many of us had about the Cougars was if they could take their offense to the next level.

Alongside Shead, LJ Cryer and Emmanuel Sharp are absolutely tearing it up from deep. If the Cougars' offense continues to roll, nobody in the country is going to want to play them.

The defense of the Cougars is entering the conversation as one of the best units of all-time. They're top-three in the following defensive categories:

• Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (1st)
• 2PT% (2nd)
• Block%(1st)
• Steal%(2nd)
• Effective FG%(2nd)

There aren't many teams in the country that can crack the code of the Cougars' defense, especially not the Bearcats. This is a Houston letdown spot after a big overtime win, but that usually correlates on the offensive side of the ball.

Houston's defensive unit is suffocating, and it's truly remarkable witnessing it in real-time. There are no answers for the Bearcats' offense, and I expect the Cougars to shut them down from the opening tip.

The Bearcats' season is in dire straits after failing to pull out a win at TCU on Saturday. They would need to win the Big 12 tournament to earn a bid into the NCAA tournament.

The Bearcats lost to the Coogs, 67-62, in their first matchup of the season. Their offense has been an issue all season long, and they have their work cut out for them in this matchup.

It's been a discouraging season for Wes Miller's team, which has the defensive tenacity to run deep in March. The Bearcats enter the matchup 83rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but that doesn't illustrate the full story.

The Bearcats rank in the bottom half of the country in the following offensive categories:

• Effective FG%
• Turnover%
• 3PT%
• FT% (68% as a team)

That's a disaster waiting to happen, especially against the Cougars. Coming off a poor offensive effort, I don't see how the Bearcats generate offense throughout the contest.

To cover the number, the Bearcats' defense needs to step up. Cincy enters the matchup 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which usually is good enough to hold its own against a good offensive team.

Unfortunately for the Bearcats, the Cougars are playing basketball at such an elite level right now, and the Bearcats don't stand a chance to slow them down. It should be a slow-paced-type of affair, but at the end of the day, it's hard to trust the Bearcats in this spot.

I realize the Bearcats' offense is due for a bit of a bounce back after struggling against TCU, but that's a more reasonable task against a different opponent. I absolutely love the Bearcats' team total under in this matchup.

The Bearcats scored 62 points in the first matchup against the Cougars, but now they're on the road. Let's face it folks, the Bearcats' season is practically over, and they definitely showed signs of a team that's quit during the game against TCU.

Meanwhile, the Cougars have their eyes on a Big 12 regular season title. There's nothing in the metrics that suggests the Bearcats are going to have offensive success here.

Despite the Cougars being overaggressive at times on defense, the Bearcats can't even capitalize due to their horrific free-throw shooting. It should be a slow-paced, rock-fight-type of affair, and I have more faith in the Cougars' defense shutting down the Bearcats as opposed to targeting the game total.

Pick: Cincinnati Team Total Under