The Louisville Cardinals take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, TN. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisville is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. Tennessee predictions and college basketball picks for December 16, 2025.
Louisville vs Tennessee Prediction
My Pick: Tennessee +1.5 (Play to -3)
My Louisville vs Tennessee best bet is on the Volunteers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs. Tennessee Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- Louisville vs Tennessee spread: Louisville -1.5
- Louisville vs Tennessee over/under: 157.5 points
- Louisville vs Tennessee moneyline: Louisville -115, Tennessee -105
Louisville vs Tennessee College Basketball Betting Preview
Louisville Basketball
Tennessee is really solid defending the 3, and Louisville is ready to rise and fire with a quickness. Thus, something has to give.
The Cardinals attempt 3s on 55% of their field goal attempts and connect at a 37.5% clip. When they make shots like that, you're probably not beating Louisville.
Louisville is second in offensive efficiency, and that's mighty impressive for a team that shoots more 3s than 2s.
We saw the good and the bad of Louisville in the last two weeks. The bad is what happens when the Cardinals don't shoot well. They lost to Arkansas and went 8-for-37 from downtown in that contest. Two games later, Louisville beat Memphis by 26 and went 18-for-35 from deep.
Now, I'm not saying Louisville is 3-point or bust. I don't believe that, as the Cardinals shoot 60% on 2s and sit 69th in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric. However, Louisville can put itself in a bind when it falls behind a bit and starts forcing bad triples.
The guard play is what makes Louisville special. The Cardinals' top three scorers are guards, led by Ryan Conwell with 19.4 points per game (42% from 3).
A fellow transfer — Isaac McKneely — demands attention when he doesn't have the ball because he's a dominant catch-and-shoot guy.
Pat Kelsey will need his point guard — Mikel Brown Jr. — to step up here. He's a flashy scorer with electric speed, but he's shooting 36% from the field and 26% from 3. And he'll have to face a proven stud guard in Ja'Kobi Gillespie, so his defense might be even more important.
The two keys for the Cardinals in this road tout are defense and rebounding. They sit 34th in defensive efficiency, which is terrific when you have the second-best offense in America.
We'll see on the rebounding, though. Arkansas grabbed 18 offensive boards and bullied the small-ball Louisville lineup.
We could see more of the same from the Vols, who have the clear size advantage.
Tennessee Basketball
How crazy would it be for Tennessee — which beat Houston and looked like one of the top teams in America — to lose four consecutive games? The Vols would be living that reality if they drop this game at home.
The Vols' offense has been a huge disappointment. Tennessee ranks 37th in KenPom's offensive efficiency and outside the top 125 in both 2-point and 3-point field goal percentage.
Plus, the Vols are turning the ball over 19% of the time.
That's a brutal combination, but the biggest issue from a personnel standpoint is Nate Ament. All we've heard about is this elite freshman class — and many have lived up to their hype. Ament, however, has been a complete mess.
The 6-foot-10 "wing" is averaging 16 points per game, but he's shooting 37% from the field and 28% from 3. The issue is Ament has to keep shooting because Tennessee doesn't have another clear go-to option outside of Gillespie.
It's not all bad, though. The Vols' strength is that they're the best offensive rebounding team in America, grabbing boards on 45% of their misses. They start two true bigs (Felix Okpara and Cade Phillips) with Ament being 6-foot-10 at the three. No opponent can match that length.
Just like all Rick Barnes-coached teams, this season's Tennessee team is terrific on the defensive end. The Vols rank 13th in defensive efficiency, while holding squads to 45% shooting on 2s and 29% on 3s.
That last stat is what will matter most in this game.
Louisville vs. Tennessee Betting Analysis
I'm going with Tennessee here.
Backing the Vols as a short home favorite against a team that figures to have some ebbs and flows based on its style is something I have to take.
What are the odds Tennessee is this bad offensively all season? Barnes isn't exactly a Nate Oats offensive coaching mind, but I think the Vols are closer to a top-25/30 offense in America than not.
Once Ament gets rolling, it'll shine a different light on the Vols.
My Pick: Tennessee +1.5 (Play to -3)
