NCAA Tournament Odds, Player Props: 2 Sunday Picks for Ryan Kalkbrenner, Norchad Omier (March 26)
Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami’s Norchad Omier.
The last day of the Elite Eight is upon us. By Sunday afternoon, we’ll have the full Final Four field ready to go.
With two stellar games on Sunday’s docket — Creighton vs. San Diego State and Miami vs. Texas — Tanner McGrath came through with a player prop for each, including picks for Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner and Miami’s Norchad Omier.
Check out both of McGrath’s picks for Sunday’s Elite Eight matchups below.
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Player Props for Sunday
In the table below, you’ll find Tanner McGrath’s top player prop picks from Sunday’s Elite Eight games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Creighton vs. San Diego State
Creighton runs a heavy drop-coverage defensive scheme spearheaded by Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-foot-1 big man with decent lateral quickness and solid defensive metrics.
I highlighted this in my preview for this game, but San Diego State probably tries to shoot over Kalk’s drop in the midrange. The Aztecs relentlessly attack the midrange area with their guards and wings — most notably the ever-streaky Matt Bradley — so this game actually sets up OK for them on paper.
However, the Aztecs also don’t space the floor particularly well. So, as Kalkrenner drops, I don’t see him ever getting stretched away from the rim. He’s going to be camping as the rim protector all night long.
As SDSU tries to shoot over the drop, Kalkbrenner will be right there to grab every single board. And given the Aztecs’ proclivity for streaky shooting, Kalk could rack up boards in a hurry during a cold run.
Kalkbrenner grabbed only five boards against Princeton but notched seven in both of the first weekend’s tournament games. Projections have him well over six rebounds on Sunday, and this matchup is solid for him from a rebounding perspective.
Plus, who knows how many offensive boards Kalkbrenner could grab. He’s nationally ranked in offensive rebounding percentage, snagging about 2.5 per game.
Pick: Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 5.5 Rebounds (-118)
Miami vs. Texas
If Dylan Disu can’t go, Norchad Omier has a monster mismatch on the interior against Texas. At the minimum, Brock Cunningham would have to play 35 minutes to match up with Omier one-on-one all game.
But even if Disu is good to go, I still like Omier to post a dozen or more today.
Texas’ ball-screen defensive metrics are super shaky — especially against the roller, where the Longhorns rank in the 15th percentile of teams in pick-and-roll roll-man PPP allowed (where Disu is their highest-usage defender, by the way).
Meanwhile, Miami’s one of the highest-usage pick-and-roll offenses in the nation, and it’s primarily because Omier is such a lethal ball-screen big man. He’s just so versatile and athletic.
By ShotQuality’s metrics, Omier scores over 1.2 PPP in roll-man situations. Texas is in for a long day if Jim Larrañaga draws everything up correctly.
Omier has been on a tear, cashing over 11.5 points in seven of his past nine games. I like the matchup here, so I’ll bank on him to post a dozen once more.
Pick: Norchad Omier Over 11.5 Points (-113)
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