NCAAB Odds, Pick for Nevada vs Utah State

Utah State saw its three-game winning streak come to an end as it lost 81-67 to San Diego State on Saturday afternoon. Viejas Arena has been a house of horror for Utah State, as it has lost 10 straight road games to San Diego State. The Aggies will be much more comfortable returning to home to Dee Glen Smith Spectrum — where they are 10-0 this season — to host Nevada on Tuesday.

The Wolfpack are coming off a much needed 30-point win over San Jose State last Friday. Nevada had lost four of its previous five games and three of those losses were on the road. It is now 4-4 in Mountain West play and three games back of Utah State.

For Nevada, Tuesday's game will begin a three-game stretch against three of the league's top four teams with San Diego State and New Mexico on deck afterwards. Going at least 2-1 would be great for its NCAA Tournament chances, but the Wolfpack may be an underdog in all three games. They will be a 5.5-point underdog for Tuesday night's game.

Nevada has three double-digit scorers in guards Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear and forward Nick Davidson. In his second year with the program, Lucas is averaging 17 points per game for the second straight year. He is also shooting 39.5% from 3 and leads the team with 49 triples. Blackshear is averaging 15.5 points per game and does not have much issue filling up the stat sheet. He is also averaging 4.9 rebounds and leads the team with 4.8 assists and 1.4 steals per game.

Davidson lead the team with a career-high 22 points against San Jose State and also shot 3-of-5 from beyond the arc. That was a bit of a rarity for him as he has made just 14 3s on the year and is shooting below 30% from deep on the season. Davidson does, however, lead the Wolfpack in rebounding with 6.9 boards per game.

However, controlling the glass has not been a strong point this season. Nevada is 226th in offensive rebounding percentage and averages just 9.2 offensive rebounds per game while ranking 202nd in total rebounds per game.

Nevada ranks 23rd in the nation in turnover percentage and limits extra possessions for its opponents. In conference games, it is third in the category both offensively and defensively. It is also second in blocks rate in conference games and 38th for the season.

First-year head coach Danny Sprinkle had a difficult task replacing 100% of the production from an NCAA Tournament team. However, he has done an exemplary job considering his team ranks in the top 50 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

Utah State is averaging 81.8 points per game and ranks 28th in scoring offense. It is led by forward Great Osobor, who has doubled his production since transferring from Montana State. Osobor is averaging 19 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.

Fellow Montana State transfer Darius Brown II does an excellent job of running Sprinkle's offense. Brown is averaging 11.2 points and 6.8 assists per game. He is fifth in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio and seventh in assists per game. Ian Martinez, meanwhile, leads the team with 34 3s and is shooting 42.5% from distance.

However, as a team, the Aggies are shooting just 30.5% from 3, which ranks 309th nationally. They prefer to bully their opponents down low, as they rank 11th in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage. They also get 58% of their points on 2s. Defensively, the Aggies are flipped. They are 264th in the nation in 2-point percentage defense but eighth in 3-point percentage defense.

Martinez and Osobor both star on defense as well. They are both averaging a steal and block per game, a real rarity from the guard spot.

Utah State is 21st in defensive rebounding percentage this season. However, in conference games, it ranks in the top three in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. It should have the edge on the glass in this matchup.

Utah State has had the upper hand in this series, winning six of the last eight meetings. It is also 5-1 against Nevada in its last six home games, winning by an average margin of 9.6 points. The home and road splits have carried over to this season as well.

Utah State has defeated eight Division I opponents by an average of 16.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Nevada has lost its last three Mountain West road games. Conference title contenders San Diego State and New Mexico both defeated by Nevada by double digits. Should those trends continue, a six-point victory should not be an issue for the Aggies.

Osobor will cause issues for Nevada. He will have 25-plus pound advantage on most Nevada frontcourt players. He has had three 20-point, 10-rebound performances in the last month as well as two 30-point games, and he will likely lead the way with the Aggies getting a ton of points in the paint.

Additionally, Utah State should also win the rebounding battle and limit Nevada's success from beyond the arc. Given these factors, I like Utah State's chances of moving to 11-o at home and covering the spread as well.

Pick: Utah State -5.5 (Play to -7)