New Mexico vs. Clemson Odds, Pick | NCAA Tournament Prediction (Friday, March 22)

It's not often we see an 11-seed as a 2.5-point favorite over a 6-seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but that's exactly what we have here.

The 11th seed in the West Region, New Mexico heads to Memphis fresh off of a Mountain West Tournament title where the Lobos won four games in four days to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.

Meanwhile, the sixth-seeded Clemson Tigers were one and done in the ACC Tournament, getting dominated from start to finish in a 21-point loss to Boston College.

Throw all of that out the window, however. The slate is clean, and it's officially win-or-go-home basketball.

Richard Pitino and New Mexico have been one of the great stories of the college basketball season. The Lobos have already won 26 games, with their eyes set on more entering the Big Dance.

This is a balanced basketball team that ranks inside the top 50 in both adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO) and adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD), per KenPom.

Jaelen House, Donovan Dent and Jamal Mashburn combine to form one of the more elite backcourts in all of America. Each player can make shots from the perimeter and also get to the rim off the bounce.

New Mexico has also cranked up its defensive intensity in recent weeks, holding each opponent it saw in Las Vegas to 66 points or less on four consecutive nights.

Clemson's offensive attack will create a different type of challenge, however, as the Tigers have players who can make plays both on the perimeter and in the paint.

Keeping guys like JT Toppin and Nelly Junior Joseph out of foul trouble will be critical against a physical Clemson front line.

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When Brad Brownell spoke to the media on Selection Sunday, he uttered the word "confused" when talking about the performance against BC in the ACC Tournament. I think Clemson's locker room is pretty much just chalking that one up as a total outlier and turning the page to prepare for New Mexico.

Before that loss, the Tigers were 7-3 in their last 10 outings and have been one of the more consistent teams in the country going back to November.

It was during the nonconference portion of the season that Clemson demonstrated it has no problem winning away from home. The Tigers won at Alabama and beat two other tournament teams — TCU and UAB — on neutral floors.

Additionally, Brownell's team won five ACC road games, including a matchup over North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

These types of results suggest that the Tigers will be very comfortable playing in a neutral building with everything on the line Friday afternoon.

Guarding the arc and containing the Lobos' guards will undoubtedly be one of the main focal points in the Tigers' game plan.

On top of that, Clemson has some size advantages inside with PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin, along with plenty of shooters of its own in veterans Joe Girard III and Chase Hunter.

New Mexico has become a public darling, and this line continues to move in its favor.

Part of that can also probably be attributed to another ACC/MWC matchup after Colorado State dominated Virginia in the First Four. I don't put a ton of stock in that game, as the NCAA Tournament is all about matchups, not conference-over-conference comparisons.

I believe now is the time to buy Clemson, which is still a very good basketball team and is now an underdog in this spot.

Hall and Schieffelin are one of the most formidable big men duos in the country, and each player should be able to find some success inside in this one.

There's no doubt the Lobos are playing really good basketball right now, but it's never easy to transition from a major high in a conference tournament to playing in the NCAA Tournament the following week.

I believe this game has the makings of a close battle all the way down to the wire, so I will gladly back the higher-seeded team playing closer to home and catching a couple of points.

Give me the Tigers.

Pick: Clemson +2.5