Oklahoma vs. Iowa State Odds

These two teams have had drastically different seasons.

Oklahoma racked up another top-25 win last weekend in Morgantown and sits safely in the tournament field as a likely No. 3 seed if the season ended today.

Meanwhile, Iowa State has yet to pick up a conference win. In fact, the Cyclones have only two wins on the season, both of which came against SWAC teams. It's been a rough season in Ames.

Fortunately, I've mainly avoided backing this Iowa State team this season, but I did bet them two Saturdays ago against this same Oklahoma team. I think there may be a chance to go back to the well here.

The Matchup

This is a potentially solid buy-low spot on the Cyclones after three consecutive lopsided losses at the hands of Kansas and Oklahoma State. In fairness, those are two teams that just present a myriad of schematic issues for Iowa State.

However, that's not the case with Oklahoma. I actually think Iowa State matches up fairly well with the Sooners.

When these two teams met two Saturdays ago in Norman, it was close throughout until OU pulled away late for a 79-72 victory. The Cyclones' cover was never in doubt from the opening tip.

Oklahoma has issues defending the perimeter. It's one of the reasons it sags so much off the 3-point line. For the season, the Sooners have allowed opponents to shoot 36.6% from 3, which ranks 286th in the nation. Iowa State's perimeter players can take advantage as they did in the first meeting when the Cyclones shot 16-of-31 from distance.

Iowa State also doesn't get to the line … like, ever. But that's pretty meaningless against an Oklahoma defense that rarely fouls. Oklahoma also doesn't force many turnovers, which have plagued the Cyclones all year.

Additionally, Oklahoma isn't a team with enormous size in the interior. That's important for an Iowa State that doesn't have much length and generally gets crushed on the boards.

The Clones will likely still lose the rebounding battle, but it shouldn't be as glaring of a discrepancy as it is in some matchups.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

There's also a chance Oklahoma comes out a bit disinterested for this one against lowly Iowa State.

Lon Kruger's bunch has played in so many big games over the past month, including a double-overtime thriller at West Virginia in its most recent contest. I wouldn't be shocked if the Sooners came out a bit flat.

Meanwhile, I still think Iowa State will fight for its first conference victory based on what I've seen. I don't think this team has quit. Plus, it recently just got fully healthy after dealing with COVID-19 issues, so I'd expect some improvement over time as they get back into a more normal routine.

It's worth noting that home conference dogs of six or more points have been absolutely dreadful this season at 80-140-8 (36.4%) ATS.

I'm not sure if clearly inferior teams miss the lack of fans more than in other scenarios, but that's a glaring split. That said, at the right price, I'm still willing to take a stab on the Cyclones here given the situational spot and matchup.

Pick: Iowa State +9 or better.