NCAAB Odds, Pick for Penn vs Houston

This holiday weekend offers quiet the challenge for the Penn Quakers.

They'll begin with a Saturday date against the Houston Cougars, one of the best teams in college basketball. The Quakers will then turnaround for a second spot on the road trip at Auburn, a strong team and a calamitous road environment.

For a team with hopes of a top-four finish in the Ivy League, this road trip is more than a measuring stick. Competing for 40 full minutes with Houston or Auburn would be a great sign for the Quakers with conference play looming.

Penn's best player last season, Ivy League Player of the Year Jordan Dingle, transferred up to play in the Big East at St. John's, leaving a huge hole on the Quakers' roster.

Penn was able to replace large portions of that production — and stay among the top teams of the Ivy League — with a mix of new faces and veterans stepping up.

Among the returning vets, Clark Slajchert has made the biggest leap. He was a secondary option last season, posting 13.6 points per game. He's elevated to the primary scorer, dropping 18.8 per night.

On the interior, junior big man Nick Spinoso has been doing the dirty work, clearing space for Slajchert.

The newcomers have also made an impact, especially two freshmen. Tyler Perkins is adding 15 points and six rebounds per game in his first season in Philadelphia. Sam Brown, son of former Sixers head coach Brett Brown, has ably stepped into the role of spacing shooter, hitting 47% of his six-plus attempts from long range each game.

If there's a worry about this team — especially facing power-conference talent — it's in the size department. Perkins is playing as the second-tallest starter at just 6-foot-4. Spinoso battles in the middle, but at 6-foot-9, he's outsized by most elite bigs.

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The last half decade or so, Kelvin Sampson has built Houston into one of the premier programs in college basketball. He's done so by year-after-year scheming one of the most diabolical defenses in the nation.

It seems like a truly miserable experience to play against Sampson's Cougars.

This year's Cougars might have Sampson's best defense yet. Houston leads all 362 teams in Division I in (deep breath) field goal percentage allowed, 2-point percentage allowed, steal rate, turnover rate forced, block rate, field goals allowed and points allowed per game.

Houston's opponents have scored just 50 points per game this season. Some of that is due to Houston's slow pace, but a lot more credit goes to the Cougars' defense, which ranks first in per possession efficiency metrics.

How could they not, when 20% of their opponents' shots get blocked and 28% of their possessions end with a turnover? It feels like a minor miracle when a team is able to even get a shot at the rim against Houston, let alone a good look.

Houston's offense is a little bit less reliable, though. Sampson can count on four of his guards to create off the bounce to get a look. When in doubt, Houston manufactures buckets on the offensive glass, where the Cougars rank in the top five of grabbing its own misses.

In Houston's 12 games, the under is 9-3. In 10 games played at home, the under has hit in seven of eight. That might leave you thinking that the Cougars are due for a high-scoring game.

I'm not so sure.

Any team traveling to play a team as feisty, athletic and lethal as Houston is scared to get into a back-and-forth game.

The Cougars love to play a slow tempo, but their opponents often want to keep that speed as well. At least in a smaller sample size you have a chance to be efficient. With more possessions, you're just giving Houston more chances to smother you.

Penn knows this and will also look to limit possessions. No matter the tempo, it's hard to see a team of Penn's caliber scoring at Houston.

The Cougars have played seven home games against teams outside KenPom's top 150. Those seven teams have more games scoring under 40 (!) points than over 50 points, with an average of just 44 points.

Trust the trend and take the under here, even at such a low number.

Pick: Under 131 or Better

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