Phil Knight Legacy Championship Odds, Picks: Duke vs. Purdue NCAAB Betting Guide (Sunday, Nov. 27)
Photo by Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Edey.
Duke vs. Purdue Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The championship game of the Phil Knight Legacy is here, and what a matchup it is.
Duke and Purdue will meet on Sunday afternoon in a series that Purdue leads all-time 4-3. Although, they have the upper hand, the Boilermakers have not taken down the Blue Devils since 2003 in the finals of the Great Alaskan Shootout.
Duke’s semifinal game with Xavier was an impressive one. The Blue Devils led 49-36 with 17 minutes to play and never looked back, defeating Xavier 71-64.
Duke point guard Jeremy Roach had his best game of the season, scoring 21 points to go with five assists and two steals.
5 assists pic.twitter.com/BnMhADzapo
— Blue Devils (@BlueDevils) November 25, 2022
Roach’s play at the point guard position heavily dictates Duke’s efficiency on both ends of the floor, so coach Jon Scheyer has to be thrilled with Roach’s semifinal performance.
On the other side, Purdue’s semifinal matchup with Gonzaga was a clinic from the Boilermakers. Purdue had four players in double figures and won the rebounding battle 46-31 on its way to a 84-66 route.
Not surprisingly, the MVP for Purdue was once again 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey.
Edey recorded his fourth straight 20-point game of the season to go with seven rebounds and three blocks.
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) November 26, 2022
In this afternoon’s championship game, Edey has his most interesting matchup of the season, going up against fellow seven-footer Kyle Filipowski, who has been averaging a double-double so far this season for the Blue Devils.
Will Edey and Purdue have yet another dominate performance in the Phil Knight Legacy final? Or has Duke finally found its stride after a slow start against Oregon State?
Let’s dive in.
After Friday’s semifinal against Xavier, Scheyer has to like how his team matches up with the red-hot Boilermakers.
Duke’s first job will be to neutralize Edey, who has been a nightmare for opposing defenses so far this season.
Duke will turn to true-freshman Filipowski to get the job done down-low. This will clearly be Filipowski’s most difficult matchup yet, but through seven games, he has shown he has what it takes to compete with the best of them.
Filipowski has an ability to matchup in the post without fouling. So far this season, he is averaging just 2.8 fouls committed per 40 minutes. Staying on the floor will be crucial against Edey, who averages 73.5% of minutes played.
Next, Duke will need to take away the rebounding advantage that Purdue has used as a cornerstone for its success.
So far this season, Duke has an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 91.7, which is good for 22nd nationally. A staple of this effective defensive play is Duke’s ability to rebound on both ends of the floor.
Duke is the best team in the country at creating extra possessions through offensive rebounds, doing so at a rate of 44.4%.
Look for Duke to neutralize Purdue’s two biggest advantages in Sunday’s championship matchup.
Matt Painter enters his 18th season as head coach of Purdue, still chasing his first Final Four appearance.
The 2022-23 Boilermakers certainly have the talent and depth to end the Final Four drought in West Lafayette.
Surrounding superstar Edey is a mixture of incoming talent and established experience that makes for an extremely balanced unit.
The most notable newcomers are a back-court duo of point guard Braden Smith and shooting guard Fletcher Loyer. These two true freshman are second and third on the team in percentage of minutes played behind only Edey.
Their play, specifically that of Smith, will is a crucial matchup in today’s championship given the effectiveness that Roach has had as of late.
Fortunately for Purdue, this is an area that Smith has excelled early in his collegiate career. Smith is averaging 3.7 steals per game, which is 180th among all D-I players. Additionally, Smith is able to get his opponents in vulnerable positions, drawing an average of 4.6 fouls per contest.
Freshman guard Braden Smith delivered in a big way in @BoilerBall's 84-66 upset vs. No. 6 Gonzaga Friday night.
Smith recorded six assists over the final 10 minutes of action, finishing with a final line of 14 points, seven assists, five rebounds and just one turnover. pic.twitter.com/xrfoQcibks
— Heat Check CBB (@HeatCheckCBB) November 26, 2022
Smith’s ability to get Roach out of his comfort zone will greatly hinder Duke’s offense, which has ranked 13th in adjusted efficiency through seven games.
Another advantage that Duke has used to find wins so far this season has been its ability to create extra possessions through offensive rebounds.
Purdue has done the same. The Boilermakers are grabbing offensive rebounds at a 37.4% clip, which is just inside the top-20 nationally.
Winning the possession battle will be crucial in limiting what this Duke team wants to do on both ends of the court.
Duke vs. Purdue Betting Pick
Overall, this championship matchup features strength-on-strength across a number of areas.
Both teams’ MVPs have been their 7-foot big men, who have done an incredible job limiting their opponents’ interior success.
Additionally, this interior success is highlighted by a rebounding percentage for both teams that is among the best in the country.
Given both teams’ ability to limit what the other wants to do, I believe this will be a closely contested battle for all 40 minutes.
With the spread currently sitting at -2 in favor of the Blue Devils, I will gladly take the points with Purdue, which will have the best player on the floor.
In a game that will be close throughout, I believe Purdue will be able to outlast Duke.
Give me Edey and Purdue in a potential Sweet 16 preview in November.
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