Providence vs Seton Hall Odds, Picks | Pirates Offer Good Value?
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Kadary Richmond
Providence vs. Seton Hall Odds
-110o / -110u
|Seton Hall Odds|
-110o / -110u
No one thought they’d be saying this a year ago when they Providence Friars began Big East play, but they will begin their conference title defense on Saturday in a road trip to Newark to face the Seton Hall Pirates.
The Big East was one of the deepest and most competitive top to bottom leagues (plus Georgetown) in the entire country last season. On paper, the league is wide open with Villanova struggling and Creighton underperforming. Seton Hall has battled a ton of injuries, and Providence has lost a bunch of pieces from last year’s Sweet 16.
Connecticut is the favorite, but the conference slate will be tough to navigate. League play begins Saturday as the Pirates are a small home favorite. The offshore were as high as 4.5 before the Friars were bet down to the current price.
Providence has changed its statistical profile this year given the changed personnel for Ed Cooley’s team. The Friars don’t have the shooting efficiency that they did last season, so they make up for it by crashing the offensive glass. Through the nonconference slate, the Friars are fourth in the country in offensive rebounding efficiency.
They don’t turn the ball over much with veteran point guard Jared Bynum running the show. They also make up for lacking shooting efficiency with the volume of shots.
But the offense is heavily reliant on getting into the paint to score this year, and it’s really hard to score in the paint against this Seton Hall defense. The Pirates have a really deep roster with excellent length and multiple rim protectors. Even if KC Ndefo isn’t tall, his shot blocking and defensive abilities are elite.
The Friars take most of their shots via offensive rebounds and cutting actions. The Cooley offense is built around cutting motion, and they rank in the 99th percentile nationally in shots from cuts.
Seton Hall excels defensively at stopping cutting action and is also excellent against defensive rebounding. They’ll let you get some rebounds because the defense is very aggressive in its ball pressure. But don’t expect a lot of good looks on putbacks.
Dre Davis returned for the Pirates in the win at Rutgers on Sunday, and the Pirates really needed him to provide a scoring punch in an otherwise low-scoring game. Seton Hall had players in and out of the lineup with injuries and illness for the better part of the nonconference slate. Kadary Richmond missed time and Davis missed time.
Davis is averaging 11.3 points in 21 minutes per game while shooting 47 percent from the field. For a team that can be offensive challenged at times, Davis has been their best two-way player. He also did a stellar job defensively in the game against Rutgers while guarding Caleb McConnell.
Seton Hall has a solid low post defense thanks to Ndefo, a Saint Peter’s transfer who stuck with Shaheen Holloway when Holloway took the Pirates job following the Peacocks’ Elite Eight run. They were able to effectively take away Rutgers’ interior game on Sunday and now will have to deal with Perkins on the interior.
This is a revenge spot for Seton Hall because it lost by five in Providence last year. The second meeting between the two teams was canceled and never rescheduled. Seton Hall also had to play that game short-handed due to injury and COVID-19 within the program.
One major advantage for Seton Hall could be in transition. The Friars weren’t a good ball screen or a good transition defense last year. It was the biggest weakness for Cooley’s team.
Seton Hall loves to push in transition offensively and while they do have turnover problems, Synergy grades them as a good transition offense.
Providence vs. Seton Hall Betting Pick
Seton Hall is the more talented team now at full strength again. The Pirates are a generally good buy-low team overall, too. But from a matchup perspective, the Pirates have advantages on offense in transition in this matchup. Providence isn’t going to shoot efficiently, which should enable the Pirates to get out and run and exploit the Friars’ defensive transition woes.
Providence runs most of its offense through cutting and offensive rebounds, two areas where the Pirates defense excels. The market moved this quickly toward Providence at open, but it’s come down too far.
The Pirates are good value on the number at -3 or better.