NCAAB Odds, Pick for Purdue vs Michigan

The Purdue Boilermakers bounced back massively against an impressive Rutgers defense on Thursday. Matt Painter's team easily covered the number, and it responded nicely to all of the criticism it faced all week long.

The Boilers now hit the road to Ann Arbor, Michigan, to take on one of the worst teams in the conference, Michigan. It's been a lost season for Juwan Howard's bunch, but luckily, it'll have star guard Dug McDaniel for this matchup.

After a big win on Thursday, many bettors presume that the Boilermakers are back in form. But the market sets their price for these elite teams, and they've gone too far, once again.

Diving into the matchup, there's no reason to believe the Boilermakers won't have their way offensively against the Wolverines. As we saw on Thursday, Braden Smith has been a massive difference maker for the Boilermakers all season long.

Smith was more of a facilitator last year, but he's blossomed into an excellent offensive threat. Painter's team lacked elite guard play last season, but there's no shortage of that now.

Against the Wolverines, they'll have their way offensively. The Boilermakers enter the contest second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and first in 3-point percentage.

The Wolverines are 314th in opposing 3PT% and allow a ton of 3-pointers each contest. Between the force of Zach Edey inside and the 3s, the Boilermakers are bound for a massive offensive performance.

Their defense is good enough to contain the Wolverines, but I have a feeling the Boilers may struggle at times on this end throughout the game. They don't force turnovers and the Wolverines' offense is superior with McDaniel on the court.

Purdue's perimeter defense has been stagnant, but the metrics suggest it's been fortunate in that category. The Wolverines' shooters are capable of knocking down consistent 3s, which leads me to believe the backdoor will be open.

I can't confidently invest in the Wolverines, despite the number being inflated. There are far too many defensive issues that they need to overcome to keep this game close.

The Wolverines are 172nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but rank in the bottom third of the country in the following categories:

• Turnover%
• Effective FG%
• Defensive Rebounding%
• Steal%
• 3PT%

That's bad news when you're going against the buzzsaw of the Boilermakers. The last time these two teams faced, the Wolverines allowed 99 points and lost the game by 32.

Michigan's offense is the clear bread and butter of its squad, but it'll have to hit consistent 3s to keep the game within reach. The Wolverines' offense is much more dynamic with McDaniel on the court, so they'll be able to keep the game closer than last time — although, that's not saying much.

It's been a long year for the Wolverines, and I can't stomach backing them — and their thin rotation — here.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Instead of tackling the game total or spread, the best approach is the Purdue's team total over. The Boilermakers dropped 99 points on the Wolverines in the first matchup, and there's no reason to believe they can't mimic a similar offensive performance.

The Wolverines' defense has far too many issues to consider backing them in this spot, and I have far more trust in the Boilermakers' offense to put up a ton of points.

Even if the Boilermakers find themselves struggling from deep, the Wolverines have no answer for Edey inside.

Instead of relying on the Wolverines to do their part in contributing to the total, I'm far more comfortable taking this bet.

Pick: Purdue Team Total Over