Promotion Banner

Rovell: Miami vs. UConn Final Four Prediction

Rovell: Miami vs. UConn Final Four Prediction article feature image

Picture by Getty Images.

My favorite Final Four betting stat is this: Jim Larranaga is the most profitable coach as an underdog over the last three years.

His Hurricanes have covered 33 of 45 games. One of the reasons why? They’re never out of it and they almost always know how to close.

In their seven losses this year, they only lost a single game by more than seven points (Maryland). Their other losses were by 1 (Florida State), 2 (NC State, Virginia and Duke), 6 (Georgia Tech) and 7 (Duke).

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

UConn is getting a lot of love and understandably so. Their average margin of victory — 22.5 points — is by far the largest of any of the Final Four teams remaining.

Beating Iona by 24 and Saint Mary’s by 15 was maybe expected — but Arkansas by 23 and Gonzaga by 28? Definitely not. These margins have been worth a couple points on the spread and are the reason why the Huskies are a 5.5 point favorite over Miami.

But they’re overpriced in this spot. These two teams are closer than the eye test indicates — or even the advanced metrics. Anyone who’s seen Miami this season will attest to it.

I’m not saying UConn won’t win, but I’m taking the Hurricanes +5.5 at BetMGM.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in Nevada, New York or Ontario.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.