NCAA Tournament Preview | Samford vs Kansas Odds, Pick

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Samford takes on Kansas on Thursday, March 21, at 9:55 p.m. ET on TBS in the NCAA Tournament First Round. Here's Samford vs Kansas odds and a pick.

In what has been a turbulent year for Bill Self and Kansas, the Jayhawks are set for NCAA Tournament action despite earning the worst seed they've been given during Self's tenure at KU.

Yes, you read that right — a No. 4 seed ties the worst seeding Kansas has ever been given under Self's leadership.

Samford has just wrapped up its third consecutive winning regular season under Bucky McMillan. In this instance, the Bulldogs were able to cap off that success with a SoCon tournament title, earning them a No. 13 seed and their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2000.

The UAB Blazers aren't the only team from Birmingham, Alabama, that earned their way into the NCAA Tournament by winning their conference tournament.

Samford is riding the wave of a new brand of Bulldog basketball affectionately titled "Bucky Ball," named after its young and successful head coach.

If you haven't yet heard a brief story of McMillan, here's a brief synopsis:

• McMillan built a powerhouse within the high school ranks of Alabama at Mountain Brook HS, reaching the Alabama state championship in seven of eight years prior to accepting the Samford job.
• Bucky Ball is centered around the Bulldogs' full-court pressing style of defense that ultimately falls back into a zone in the half-court. To keep his players' legs fresh, McMillan typically uses a full platoon style of substituting.
• In just his fourth season at Samford, McMillan led his team to a school record 15 conference wins and their first NCAA Tournament appearance in nearly a half century.

Samford lost two key pieces — Ques Glover and Logan Dye — following a solid 2022-23 season. Expectations were slightly tempered entering this season, as McMillan would have to find a way to replace nearly 28 points of production.

In reality, it hasn't been the new pieces like the Utah State transfer Rylan Jones and Baylor transfer Zach Loveday that have taken on that scoring burden. The existing pieces on Samford's roster have elevated their respective games.

Achor Achor has been Bucky's most prolific scorer this season. Unfortunately, since McMillan's team is undersized, the 6-foot-9 Achor may be tasked with guarding Hunter Dickinson in the low-post. Achor will need to stay out of foul trouble if Samford wants to pull off the upset.

On the other end of the court, Kansas will likely choose to put K.J. Adams Jr. — an outstanding defender — on Achor defensively.

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One of the most perplexing teams to project in this NCAA Tournament are these Kansas Jayhawks.

Kansas' ceiling is extremely high. It won the National Championship in 2022 as a No. 1 seed. Plus, this season, the Jayhawks have defeated Kentucky, Tennessee, UConn, Houston and Baylor, among several other impressive wins.

However, Self has watched his team lose four of its final five games entering the NCAA Tournament while battling key injuries.

Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick were clearly huge losses for Self to replace in the offseason. It seemed the signing of Dickinson (who's expected to play Thursday after suffering a dislocated right shoulder against Houston) eased any potential concerns Kansas fans may have had about maintaining the greatness it's achieved in recent years.

However, Dickinson's signing didn't address the loss of perimeter shooting.

Nicolas Timberlake and Elmarko Jackson were expected to be the outstanding perimeter replacements. Frankly, neither has worked out in their respective first seasons in Lawrence.

Timberlake was a highly sought-after shooting threat who's a fifth-year senior from Towson. Jackson was a McDonald's All-American who was believed to be an athletic defender who could excel in the backcourt in unison with Dajuan Harris Jr.

When Thursday rolls around, neither is likely to be included in Self's starting — or finishing — rotation.

If Samford chooses to press — as it normally does — Kansas won't mind. Kevin McCullar Jr. won't be available for the NCAA Tournament, but KU will still have three capable ball-handlers available to deal with the Bulldogs' pressing attack.

If the initial press is broken, Kansas will simply view the press break as a transition scoring opportunity. The Jayhawks thrive in transition and are a terrific, unselfish passing team.

Self would much prefer his team push the tempo and score in transition than lay back and play half-court offense, where his team has labored to score at times throughout this season.

Samford is a sexy upset pick across many brackets. Kansas hasn't been healthy and doesn't have the momentum Samford carries into this NCAA Tournament.

Heck, Seth Davis even picked the Bulldogs immediately upon the bracket reveal.

Kansas may struggle at some point in this NCAA Tournament — especially without McCullar — but I don't believe it's here.

Expect Kansas to dominate inside the paint and on the glass while scoring in transition against Samford's press.

Pick: Kansas -7.5 (Play to -8.5)

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