SEC Tournament Odds & Predictions: 2 Picks for Missouri vs. Alabama & Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M (Saturday, Mar. 11)
Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Wade Taylor IV (Texas A&M)
After a more than eventful quarterfinal round of the SEC Tournament, we have our two semifinal matchups set for Saturday.
The first matchup between Missouri and Alabama features two of the most potent offenses in the conference.
Alabama is fresh off a statement victory over Mississippi State in which the Tide made an impressive 13 3-point attempts.
On the other side, Missouri was led by a 23-point performance from Kobe Brown as the Tigers beat Tennessee.
Next up, we have a Vanderbilt team that has gotten hot at just the right time, taking on the No. 2 overall seed Texas A&M.
The Aggies were able to come back from a 13-point first half deficit to knock off Arkansas on Friday night. They will now match up with a Vanderbilt team quietly on a five-game winning streak.
Although some of the marquee programs have seen an early exit in Nashville, these two semifinals matchups are not lacking storylines.
Missouri vs. Alabama Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -102 | 157.5 -115o / -105u | +390 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -120 | 157.5 -115o / -105u | -530 |
Although the Crimson Tide have been hampered by plenty of off-court issues, they certainly delivered on the hardwood in their semifinal matchup against Mississippi State.
Nate Oats' decision to insert SEC co-Sixth Man of the Year Jahvon Quinerly into the starting lineup certainly paid off from an offensive perspective, as the Tide posted 72 points on 13-of-37 shooting from the perimeter.
This impressive offensive performance came despite the Tide missing six-straight 3s in the middle part of the first half.
Now Alabama will face off against a Missouri defense that has been statistically inconsistent during its 2022-23 campaign. The Tigers rank 10th in the SEC in Adjusted Efficiency, giving up 74.7 points per game.
However, the Tigers have been effective at creating pressure on the defensive end, resulting in the highest turnover percentage in the SEC at 22.7%. This ability to pressure Alabama’s offense will be critical, as the Tide rank 233rd nationally in offensive turnover percentage at 18.8%.
This ability to create pressure was on full display for Missouri in its quarterfinal matchup with Tennessee, as the Tigers forced the Volunteers into 14 total turnovers, well above their season average.
On the other side, Alabama’s defense will look to limit Missouri’s production from the perimeter, which propelled the Tigers to the semifinals. Against Tennessee, Brown and Missouri racked up 10 total 3s on 38.5% shooting from the perimeter.
These outside looks will be more difficult to come by against an Alabama team that is allowing its opponents to shoot just 32.8% of their total field goal attempts from the perimeter, the third-lowest rate in the conference.
Additionally, the Tide rank No. 1 in the SEC in effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and 2-point percentage.
Given these defensive advantages, I look to the under as the best pick in this first SEC semifinal matchup.
Pick: Under 157.5 (Play to 157) |
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Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M Odds
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 140.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
Jerry Stackhouse and this Vanderbilt team have won five games in a row, including a pair of wins against John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats.
The Commodores have been led down the stretch by the sensational play of point guard Ezra Manjon. The senior transfer from UC Davis is averaging 19 points per game in his last three outings.
Although Manjon’s play has been exceptional, he must now match up with Wade Taylor IV and a Texas A&M defense that ranks fourth in the SEC in turnover percentage.
The Aggies' ability to create pressure will be critical against a Vanderbilt team that has relied on Manjon’s play to post the lowest turnover percentage in the conference at 13.6%.
On the other end, Texas A&M should see some offensive progression against a Vanderbilt defense that ranks 12th in the SEC in Adjusted Efficiency.
In particular, Vanderbilt has been poor at keeping teams off the offensive glass, allowing its opponents to create second chances on 31.7% of their field goal attempts.
This inefficiency on the glass will be exposed by a Texas A&M offense that ranks seventh nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.7%.
Look for Texas A&M to find its stride offensively against a Vanderbilt team playing its third game in three days.
Pick: Texas A&M -6 |
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