Stuckey’s Top 5 College Basketball Betting Angles, Including Ohio State vs. Illinois, Duke vs. North Carolina, More (Saturday, March 6)
Jaylynn Nash/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Wendell Moore Jr.
- Saturday is here, which means Stuckey is here to walk you through his college basketball betting card.
- Stuckey picked out his five favorite games from Saturday's slate and explained why he likes each pick.
- Check out all five of his top bets complete with breakdowns and analysis below.
We have way too much fantastic content up on the site right now in regards to today’s conference tournament and other action, so I won’t make you suffer through my normal 5,000-word ramble.
I have the rest of March to do that.
Saturday Circled Spots
Here are my five favorite circled spots for Saturday with some short and sweet context in addition to target betting prices for each.
These are 18-9-1 ATS (66.6%) on the year, so let’s finish strong. Or you can send this article to your friends to fade away with potential regression looming. That’s your choice, but hopefully you have picked up a few nuggets each week in this piece, which is my ultimate goal.
UMass Lowell at UMBC
2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Well, we rode the River Hawks in both America East Tournament games last week, and this train isn’t stopping yet. I still think they remain undervalued in the market since the return of star guard Obadiah Noel, who will be the best player on the court. He’s capable of putting up 30 with ease.
I also like the matchup for the River Hawks. UMass Lowell is the third-most pick-and-roll reliant team in the entire country. That spells trouble for a UMBC defense that grades out excellent overall but struggles to defend PnR. The Terriers rank in the 13th percentile nationally in terms of Points Per Possession in that department, per Synergy. Plus, UMBC won’t exploit turnover issues.
In Obi We Trust.
Target Price: UMass Lowell +6 or better.
Ohio State -2 vs. Illinois
4 p.m. ET on ESPN
Just a classic buy low/sell high spot here.
Illinois is coming off two monumental top-25 road wins without Ayo Dosunmu, who is questionable today. Meanwhile, Ohio State has lost three straight overall heading into the regular-season finale.
I love the lllini overall (my biggest national title future from the preseason), but this isn’t the best matchup for them.
The Buckeyes can do a lot of things offensively with their bigs to exploit Kofi Cockburn. Head coach Chris Holtmann runs beautiful sets on that end of the floor, and I expect him to have a superb game plan here with his troops ready to roll in a tremendous situational spot.
Target Price: Ohio State -2 or better.
Stephen F. Austin +1 at Sam Houston State
6 p.m. ET on ESPN+
We’ve seen Stephen F. Austin in the NCAA Tournament a few times over the years. However, that won’t be the case this year as the Lumberjacks decided to serve a postseason ban this year. That includes the Southland Conference Tournament, so this will mark their final game of the season.
This is essentially their Super Bowl. And they get to play spoiler against their rival Sam Houston State, which will be trying to lock up a share of the regular-season title and a triple-bye into the semifinals of the conference tourney.
You better believe this senior-laden Stephen F. Austin team (17th in experience, per KenPom) will be fired up for this one and throw everything it has at the Bearkats.
It’s also a pretty good matchup for Stephen F. Austin, which can get to the hoop in its rim-reliant offense against a smaller Sam Houston squad.
Both defenses force a lot of turnovers, so expect plenty of those from two offenses that will cough the ball up. It should be competitive, but I think the Lumberjacks get the season sweep in their Super Bowl.
In The Seniors We Trust.
Target Price: Stephen F. Austin PK or better.
South Alabama PK vs. Louisiana
6 p.m. ET on ESPN+
I’ve been waiting to take on this Louisiana team since it lost starting point guard Brayan Au. I think this is the perfect time to do it against the complex South Alabama zone defense that the Ragin’ Cajuns will see for the first time this season.
ULL has pulled multiple magic acts to escape with victories in conference play over the last month of the regular season (4-0 in games decided by three points or less).
You could make the argument that Louisiana has been the luckiest overall team in the nation this year. Only Navy has been luckier and is due for more negative regression, per ShotQuality. I think the Ragin’ Cajun voodoo runs out tonight in a tricky schematic matchup.
In Michael Flowers We Trust.
Target Price: South Alabama -1 or better.
Duke +3 at North Carolina
6 p.m. ET on ESPN
Duke has lost two straight in overtime to tournament teams but is clearly much better off without Jalen Johnson (and with Mark Williams playing more to defend the rim).
Everything went wrong for the Blue Devils in the first meeting (when Johnson was still on the team to boot), and they still only lost by four.
This is a much better team now and Williams can make things tougher on the UNC bigs than the first time around. I also don’t expect the horrid-shooting Heels to go 10-of-15 from deep again, while Matthew Hurt fouls out with a season-low seven points.
Look out for a lot of zone looks from Coach K and a big game from Hurt. I think the Blue Devils pull out a squeaker.
Check out my game preview for a more in-depth look.
Target Price: Duke +3 or better.