Kansas vs TCU Odds, Prediction | Big 12 NCAAB Betting Guide
Chris Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: TCU head coach Jamie Dixon.
Kansas vs TCU Odds
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
There is not much better than a bounce-back game between two of the best teams in the Big 12, which is exactly what we have in Saturday afternoon’s matchup between TCU and Kansas.
The Horned Frogs are coming off a 74-65 loss on the road to West Virginia. This was the first Big 12 victory for a desperate Mountaineers team.
On the other side, Kansas will return home after just their second loss of the season. The Jayhawks were defeated by No. 13 Kansas State, 83-82, in overtime.
— Jonathan Deutsch (@JonathanD_TV) January 18, 2023
To find out which team will be able to bounce back, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for TCU vs Kansas.
Bouncing back from a loss is something the Jayhawks have only done one other time this season. After losing to Tennessee in the Battle 4 Atlantis Championship, Kansas rattled off 10 straight victories.
The Jayhawks have accomplished this through an incredible balanced attack on both ends of the floor. Kansas ranks inside the top 20 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, something few teams can say.
Offensively, Kansas is extremely effective at moving the ball to create penetration. The Jayhawks score 53.7% of their points from 2-point range and three of every five baskets scored come off an assist.
On the defensive end, Kansas is just as effective through its ability to prevent penetration and create pressure. The Jayhawks rank 19th nationally in steal percentage at 13% and only allow 49.4% of their baskets from 2-point range.
However dominant this Kansas team has been this year, the Jayhawks have displayed an inability to defend without fouling. Kansas has allowed opponents to score 19.6% of their points from the free throw line, which is above the national average of 18.2%.
This is important to note as the Jayhawks face a TCU team that has mastered created contact and getting to the charity stripe. The Horned Frogs score 20.5% of their points from the free throw line, the 66th-highest rate in the country.
Lastly, the Horned Frogs will have the ability to match up with Kansas point guard Dajuan Harris, who is truly the engine for this Kansas offense. Harris is averaging 6.5 assists per game with the 33rd-highest assist rate in the country.
In order to counter this, TCU will utilize its backcourt duo of Mike Miles and Damion Baugh, who have a steal percentage of 2.6% and 3.6%, respectively.
Mike Miles has an outstanding feel for the game and these extraordinary plays (from over the 3 years at TCU) exemplify that. His ability to read helpside defense without fouling is outstanding. No, these plays are unlikely to happen in the NBA, but they highlight his intelligence pic.twitter.com/AmUjZ4LYWn
— Mavs/Magic Draft (@MavsDraft) December 22, 2022
Bouncing back against this TCU team will not be as easy for the Jayhawks as this line suggests.
TCU’s Big 12 season has been a true roller coaster as they sit at 3-3 in conference play. All three of these loses have come by an average of just five points per game.
The Horned Frogs have displayed an ability to keep games close through their defensive play. TCU has the 19th-highest adjusted defensive efficiency, as a result of their ability to make opponents uncomfortable.
The pressure this TCU defense applies can be seen in their 23.7% turnover percentage, the 19th best in the country. The Horned Frogs have also displayed an ability to defend the perimeter, allowing teams to attempt just 33.3% of their shots from beyond the arc, the 65th-lowest rate nationally.
This defensive ability will be particularly important against a Kansas team ranking 17th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 77.2 points per game. The Jayhawks have been incredibly effective in the half-court, scoring 61.7% of their points off an assist, the 12th-highest rate of any offense.
TCU’s defensive pressure will not allow for Kansas to get comfortable in the half-court as the Horned Frogs are the No. 1 team in the country in the fast break. Through their ability to create turnovers, TCU has scored 21.22 fast-break points per game, the highest average in the country.
— TCU Basketball (@TCUBasketball) January 14, 2023
This is an undoubtedly good spot for Kansas, coming off a loss, but look for TCU to keep things close through ability on the defensive end.
Kansas vs TCU Prediction, Pick
There is no doubt Kansas returning to Allen Field House off of a loss is usually a great spot to invest in a Bill Self-led team.
However, TCU has proven time and time again its ability to keep games close by turning defense into offense.
I believe TCU’s backcourt will be able to do enough to frustrate Harris, and in turn disrupt a Kansas defense thriving in its halfcourt sets.
This angle can be reflected in the initial opening of Kansas -8.5 being bet down to -8 promptly after being posted. I see value in TCU to keep this within a two score game.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.